Market Maker

Janet Yellen did you have your coffee and a red bull last night?

Good Morning, Yellen speaks, markets go up? Yellen, did you have a strong coffee last night and a red bull to go with it? Don't bet on the end of the bull market just yet….. US Markets rallied last night (Dow Jones +113 points), as commodities continued to run….. In London, Anglo American +11%, Rio +6.4%, BHP +6.3%, Glencore +6.2%... RBA interest rate decision today… will they cut again? Highly unlikely…

Will US Payrolls figures impact Yellen’s interest rate decision?

Good Morning, happy Friday…..It has been a good week for us here @ PEAK and today, we move to our new PEAK Headquarters @ Level 39, 55 Collins Street. We have a beautiful boardroom overlooking the MCG, so get set for a PEAK Wine & Cheese night, over coming weeks….. Stay tuned… Tonight, we have the “all important” US payroll figures…………… So if the figures are better than expected, do we expect Janet Yellen to raise interest rates next month? You bet!

OPEC is unlikely to cut production… so what does it mean for oil?

Good Morning, another early start this morning as we jump on a conference call to the US to discuss the next PEAK OPPORTUNITY. After a great 20% debut yesterday for SWIFT, we are building great momentum… and this one is exciting…. Oil has surged about 85 percent since touching a 12-year low in February on signs the global surplus is easing. However, the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries is unlikely to reach an agreement limiting production at this week’s meeting in Vienna, as the group sticks with Saudi Arabia’s strategy of squeezing out rivals…. So where is oil heading?

Chinese stock market crashes 10% and then recovers… warning signs ahead?

Good Morning, “a pinch and a punch”, yes it’s the 1st of the month and winter is here…. An eventful trading session we had in China yesterday, with the index plunging 10% in a matter of seconds, then rebounding back up…We did talk about short positions in the Chinese market being the highest for the past 12 months, but we certainly didn’t expect a “10% flash crash”…… Warning signs for June?

Global markets lack direction… should we be worried?

Good Morning, a fairly “uneventful” night last night with both US and UK markets closed for public holidays…. Trading volumes have been extremely low (lowest since 2009) and last night, didn’t help with the lack of direction.Today is the last day of May and all things considered, we’ve held up extremely well…… “Sell in May and go away”…. It hasn’t been as bad as we thought…. But what’s in store for June?

Will a “Brexit” impact markets?

Good Morning, we’re a little tired this morning after a packed day yesterday in Perth, but hey, market was up last night (Dow + 145 points), so we should have another good day today….. We had a great day yesterday here in Oz, with the XJO rallying + 75 points, as banks rallied and commodities provided strong support… We feel that if the RBA cuts interest rates again next week, markets will rally as investors seek higher yields…..

Is it time to short Australian banks?

There is growing speculation that Australian banks are vulnerable…. Growing bad and doubtful debts, weak net interest margins and a property market that looks “shaky” is putting pressure on banking stocks. Global hedge funds are benefiting from this trade by increasing their net-short positions by over 18x, the highest on record… yes, even greater than the GFC… so do we agree with them? In part, yes…. We feel that bank cash earnings will remain “flat” to “negative” over the next 6-12 months and we are concerned about banks’ exposures to the small-cap junior mining and oil companies…. We also feel that banks will not be able to pay their dividends, driving share-prices lower… red alert?

Why are global markets looking for direction?

Good Morning,  It appears that global markets are looking for clear direction….. And aren’t getting it… Last week, markets remained “fragile”, as talks of a US interest hike in June put some fear on whether global growth will remain resilient… Given that US earnings are now out of the way, the market is closely monitoring macro-economic data, which largely, has been strong…. However, the stronger the data, the quicker the market will price in an interest rate rise in June…

Now that earnings are out of the way, what will be the market’s catalyst?

Good morning. Trust that you had a nice weekend are raring to go for another busy week on markets… now that US earnings are out of the way, the key question will be what are the main catalysts that will drive markets?Global central banks have little to no “ammunition”, as both fiscal and monetary policies are ineffective…. The RBA may cut interest rates again next month but as AUS inflation is extremely low, cutting rates do not have a strong bearing on markets….. Our focus this morning is on a special opportunity, YPB… Make sure to listen to the podcast, as it is an interesting story…

Is strong US data causing “angst” in markets?

Good Morning, an early start this morning as we head into the Sky News studios to talk global markets. For those wanting to tune in, we’re on at 8:15am. So what happened last night? Global stocks fell (Dow Jones -190 points), as Atlanta Fed President Dennis Lockhart and San Francisco’s John Williams said two rate increases this year may be warranted.  Dallas Fed President Robert Kaplan said a hike may come soon.  Overall, strong US data is supporting this case… But is strong data having a negative bearing on equities?....

US housing market remains stable, but is Australia currently in over-supply?

Good Morning, US Stocks rallied last night (Dow + 175 points), as crude oil rallied on the back of stronger retail sales (released Friday), while Apple finally broke through its recent downtrend, following Warren Buffet’s move to potentially buy the stock… Every time Buffet opens his mouth, he impacts the market in some shape or form.… incredible…  However, analysts believe that the rally is “short-lived” as US earnings are now out of the way, paving way for focus to turn to macro-data, including whether central banks will continue to stimulate the economy…  Housing data released last night showed that the US housing market, is holding up well… but what about AUS?

Australian gold at all-time-highs.. is this just the start?

Good Morning, trust that you had a nice weekend and are looking forward to another busy week on markets… So what can we expect this week? Aussie gold stocks are “flying” as the AUD continues to fall and gold is well supported, following weak macro data… where to from here? 

Are weak trading volumes telling us that a storm is coming?

Good Morning,  It looks like the storm clouds are coming… again… US stocks fell for the first time in four days (Dow -217 points), reversing much of Tuesday's rally as disappointing results from Macy's Inc. to Walt Disney Co. heightened concern that American consumers remain hesitant to boost spending. The misses from Disney and Macy's sent consumer discretionary shares tumbling the most in three months as investors await Friday's government report on retail sales. What is interesting is that the latest rally in equities has been on near all-time-low trading volumes….Implications?

BHP to grow by 70% without a commodities rally… I would like to see that…

Good Morning, no morning or afternoon note yesterday as we were on the road, but this is what we like to wake up to!Dow +222 points, Oil +3%, SPI + 29 points…. Go downstairs and grab your morning coffee, we should have a great day today… So BHP has come out stating that they will grow by over seventy percent without a commodities rally…. How are they going to do that? 

Dear Malcolm, Calling an election on Mother’s Day is selfish…

Good Morning, trust that you had a nice weekend a, spent some quality time with family & friends and a great Mother’s Day…“Dear Malcolm, yesterday wasn’t all about you…. It was about our hard-working mothers, who give back so much to their families and the economy, itself… Couldn’t you have just waited for this morning to announce a 2 July Election?

Will the silver donut deliver?

Good Morning, today is the silver donut’s day… No, we’re not talking about Homer Simpson, we are talking about Macquarie Bank.. who releases their FY results. Unlike the Big 4 Banks, Macquarie’s earnings are largely based on deal origination, equity capital markets (ECM) and their fixed income and funds management businesses. Macquarie has done exceptionally well in diversifying their income streams in mortgage broking via Yellow Brick Roads (YBR), its investment in shopping centres and airports…

“Data-Geddon”…. How do we solve this problem?

Good Morning, happy Thursday… Yes, it’s not quite Friday, but hey, we’re getting there… Last night, I went out for dinner with the management ofWeebit Nano (vending into RAD), an Israeli tech company “disrupting” Flash memory. Did you know that over 2% of America’s total energy usage is being used by data centres? Photos, videos, Instagram, emails…. The “cloud” is not somewhere in space…

Stevens, thanks for listening… we know the popcorn tastes good, but it was time to get off the couch

Good Morning, an early start this morning as we head into Sky News to talk interest rate cuts, discuss impacts of the federal budget and last night’s movements… for those wanting to watch, tune in to Sky @ 8:15am.  Super Tuesday, you certainly lived up to expectations! Glen, thank you for listening…. It has taken you around 2 months to get off the couch and yes, the popcorn is nice and salty, but I do appreciate your input… it’s all about the budget this morning and ANZ, you’re the only bank to not pass yesterday’s interest rates cut in full… lift your game…

Dear new treasurer, it’s time to cut taxes. Thank you…

Good Morning, we have a “Super” Tuesday today… No… we’re not talking about the US election.. What is happening? At 2:30pm AEST, we hope that the RBA cuts interest rates to 1.75%.... then the much awaited, federal budget… will the new treasurer cut taxes? This is what we want to see… the question: how do we fund it?

Will WBC report a huge write-down on Slater & Gordon? Will ANZ follow?

Good Morning, yes… It is Monday morning…. and guess what? It’s May… “Sell in May and go away?”… will this be relevant in 2016? Maybe… Global markets appear to be fragile, with US earnings providing to be “some-what” positive (although coming off a very low EPS expectations). On Friday,the Bank of Japan sat still and didn’t unleash any further stimulus… so what can we expect from AUS bank earnings today? WBC comes out first… how big will the SGH write-down be? Will net interest margins fall? Cash earnings remain flat… all likely..

Japanese central bank sits on its hands.. stocks fall… where to from here?

Good Morning, Happy Friday… Yes, another short-fuelled week and the weekend is here, once again…