14/03/2016 - 06:02

China… Your Growth is closer to 6%, not 6.9%... Fact.

14/03/2016 - 06:02


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Good Morning from Beijing… I have spent the last four days here talking at the AUS-China Investment seminar across four cities with Partners of Hall Chadwick and Thomas Geer. It has been a “surreal” opportunity and after speaking with the locals about the economy, government policies and eating lots of local Chinese food, I can comfortably tell you that growth in China is definitely slowing…. But there is more to it…..

China… Your Growth is closer to 6%, not 6.9%... Fact.

Good Morning from Beijing….

Yes, it is early in the morning here and yes, it is a public holiday in Victoria today, but I wanted to get up early and give you a quick update on life in China…..

The past few days here have been nothing short of “vibrant”……..

4 cities in four days…

Traffic Jams…

Wrong turns…

Chinese food for each meal of the day….

300km/h train rides and speaking at three events in front of over 150+ people in each seminar, with Graham Webb and Tim Flahvin (Partners of Hall Chadwick & Thomas Geer), about the investment landscape in Australia……

No, this wasn’t the “Amazing Race”, but at times, it certainly has felt like it….


To summarise:

* After speaking with many locals over the past few days, growth in China is definitely “slowing down” ……. as:

* The cost of labour in China has increased significantly over the past few years

* Factories are closing down and moving to cheaper countries such as Indonesia and Vietnam

* Consumption of raw materials is definitely slowing down…..

* GDP is closer to 6% and not 6.9%....... the government is controlling this figure….

* There is strong evidence of many “ghost cities” in China, and I will provide picture evidence for you of this next week….

* There is enormous amount of wealth in China and the children of China are controlling this wealth….

* There is large demand for investment in Australia, especially property, agriculture, food and technology

* The government in China is starting to support the economy and the majority of those I spoke to, believe that the policies will boost growth….

* The weakening currency is seen by locals as a positive, not a negative for growth…


Most importantly, The cities of China (Jinan, Biejing, Shanghai, Hungzou) are vibrant, clean, modern and are “full of life”…..

Later in the week, I will write a full report on life in China and include some pictures and videos for you (that I took with the locals), to give you a proper perspective of what is actually happening in this country.

I will be flying tonight, back tomorrow morning…. So looking forward to catching up with you properly tomorrow…

The SPI is up 62 points this morning



Niv Dagan is an Executive Director of Melbourne based boutique funds management and corporate advisory firm, Peak Asset Management (www.peakassetmanagement.com.au). He is also a regular financial commentator on Sky Business.


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