Will the AUS election cause a mini “Brexit?”

01/07/2016 - 06:14
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Good morning, yes it’s the first of July and an election is upon us… who will win? It will be a close call….So what are the implications for spending, the economy, education and health? Lots… what we do know is the uncertainty of a potential “new leader” ay impact monetary and fiscal policy short-term..Markets up overnight, SPI up 50 points…

Good Morning,

 

A pinch and a punch for the first of the month…

 

Yes, July is here….

 

Happy Friday….

 

Markets are higher overnight and;

 

We have our own “mini Brexit” over the weekend (yes, an election)….

 

Who will win?

 

what we do know is the uncertainty of a potential “new leader” ay impact monetary and fiscal policy short-term..

 

Last night, Wall Street rolled to a third straight day of gains (Dow + 235 points) on Thursday as Britain's central bank raised the prospect of stimulus and consumer staples shares gained on news of Mondelez International's $23 billion bid for Hershey.

"Central banks are doing their best to step in and send stocks higher," said Adam Sarhan, chief executive officer of Sarhan Capital. "I think the Fed is more than ready to follow suit if market conditions worsen."

June was a month for the record books in European stocks. The UK's decision to leave the European Union sent the number of Stoxx Europe 600 Index shares changing hands to a daily average of about 4.1 billion, the most since May 2010.

The vote for Brexit has capped a turbulent second quarter for global assets:

  • Global stocks climbed 0.2 percent changed after falling as much as 4.7 percent; emerging markets lost 0.4 percent while Europe fell 2.2 percent
  • The British pound has a 7.9 percent loss, its worst since the financial crisis
  • Government bonds worldwide gained 2.3 percent in June, the most since 2008
  • The Bloomberg Commodity Index had its best quarter since 2010, rallying 13 percent as surpluses shrank in some commodities
  • Oil rallied 26 percent for the biggest quarterly surge since 2009 and gold had its best half year since 1974

So… What's on today?

CoreLogic RP Data house prices

The SPI is up 50 points this morning

 

Niv Dagan is an Executive Director of Melbourne based boutique funds management and corporate advisory firm, Peak Asset Management (www.peakassetmanagement.com.au). He is also a regular financial commentator on Sky Business.

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