Will a “Brexit” kick England out of the Euro cup?

Good Morning,

On Monday morning, we had the opportunity to talk to our friends at CNBC about global markets, discuss the recent flight to treasuries and discuss our top picks for the AUS market

To listen, click here:  http://video.cnbc.com/gallery/?video=3000525119

US stocks retreated for a fourth day (Dow Jones -37 points), the longest since February, amid growing uncertainty about the UK's future in the European Union and as investors awaited Wednesday's Federal Reserve announcement. 

Now….

Let’s take a step back and talk about this possible “Brexit” on the 23rd of June …….

·         Firstly, the pending outflows coming out of England and Europe would make Greece’s exit from the EU seem like a small needle in the Atlantic ocean…

·         Secondly, the GBP would likely fall by around ~ 1,000+ pips vs. the Euro, USD, JPY and AUD… think about all the “aussie” expats that have earned money in GBP.. implications would be large…

·         Thirdly, the uncertainty in the market and the high Debt:GDP ratios , would drive a global recession, huge downward spiral in the property market and bank outflows

·         Most importantly, England would be banned from playing in the Euro…………...

Do you really think a “Brexit” is likely…..?

No ………. It will not happen.

Data Tuesday showed U.S. retail sales rose more than forecast in May, as the Fed started a two-day policy meeting. The futures market indicates there’s zero chance of an interest-rate hike this week, with the chances of an increase by the December meeting now less than 50 percent.

“It was nice to see a good retail sales number, but folded on top of that you have Brexit, speculation around the Fed and the market still near some highs,” said Richard Sichel, chief investment officer at Philadelphia Trust Co., which oversees $2 billion. “That’s causing investors to remain cautious.”

What's on today?

Westpac consumer sentiment survey, Premier Investments extraordinary general meeting

The SPI is down 16 points this morning

Niv Dagan is an Executive Director of Melbourne based boutique funds management and corporate advisory firm, Peak Asset Management (www.peakassetmanagement.com.au). He is also a regular financial commentator on Sky Business.