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Sell in May and go away?


Good morning. 

It's been a great long weekend but it is now time to get back to business. 

Historically, May hasn't been a great month in equities and we're cautious, given the rally in global equities. the "Fear" and "Greed" index is now hovering around 75 and it appears the consumer confidence is on the rise... 

But is the rally losing steam? 

The recent spike in speculative trading in commodities in China has stunned global markets, according to Morgan Stanley, which cited a jump in local activity for steel, iron ore and cotton as well as eggs and garlic.

"Now China's speculators engage commodities," analysts including Tom Price and Joel Crane said in an emailed note on Monday.

Anglo American and BHP Billiton fell at least 5.8 per cent overnight, leading miners to the biggest decline of the 19 industry groups on the Stoxx Europe 600 Index, as base metals retreated. 

Given the volatility, we remain cautious leading to May... 

Important to note that the local market has now almost made up the losses for the year....

The key will be earnings growth and margin expansion...

So... what's on today?

Local data: None

In Washington on Tuesday, the Fed's Open Market Committee begins two-day meeting.

Connecticut, Delaware, Maryland, Pennsylvania and Rhode Island hold primary elections. At stake are 172 delegates for the Republican candidates and 463 delegates for the Democratic candidates.

 

The SPI is down 24 points this morning. 

 

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