If Turnball was a stock, would he have peaked in September?

Good Morning,


Today voting resumes in the AUS election….


The coalition needs several seats to form a majority government, which is looking more difficult by the hour.


If Turnball was a company, his stock price in September couldn’t have been higher.

The former Goldman Sachs banker had just seized the prime ministership from Tony Abbott in a party coup, blindsiding a conservative bloc within Australia’s ruling coalition.

The government quickly surged in opinion polls along with his own popularity rating, as Australians looked to him to find new drivers of economic growth and end an almost unprecedented era of political instability.

However, things changed very quickly as the “lack of leadership” and failure to implement decisive policies, impacted his popularity….

The chart below says it all…

Last night, US markets were closed for 4th of July holiday…….


But it was silver which is “running hot” along with Gold….

“Investment demand for metals continue on expectations of a dovish Fed, growth worries and central bank policies putting more and more sovereign bonds into negative yields,” Ole Hansen, the head of commodity strategy at Denmark’s Saxo Bank A/S, wrote in an e-mail. 

“The policies of the ECB and BOJ are already ultra-loose and further stimulus could be added following the Brexit vote.”

Silver touched a two-year high and gold rallied for a fourth day after the Brexit vote spurred demand for havens.

Gold and other raw materials have advanced on speculation the U.K.’s June 23 vote to leave the EU will trigger further stimulus from the European Central Bank and Bank of Japan while reducing the chance that the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates this year.

Global equities last week rallied by the most in four months as policy makers worldwide sought to reassure investors they would take steps to limit the economic fallout of so-called Brexit and ensure financial markets kept functioning. The securities tumbled by the most since 2008 on the day after Britain’s referendum.

So… What's on today?

Local data: RBA board meeting and rate decision, no change is expected; ABS retail trade for May; AI group performance of services index for June; ABS international trade for May; Dun and Bradstreet business expectations for June. 

The SPI is flat this morning


Niv Dagan is an Executive Director of Melbourne based boutique funds management and corporate advisory firm, Peak Asset Management ( He is also a regular financial commentator on Sky Business.


The Prime Minister's name is Malcolm Turnbull?

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