DESPITE a weaker world economic outlook, Australia’s commodity exports are expected to reach a record $89 million in 2001-02, according to the Australian Bureau of Agricultural and Resource Economics executive director Brian Fisher.
DESPITE a weaker world economic outlook, Australia’s commodity exports are expected to reach a record $89 million in 2001-02, according to the Australian Bureau of Agricultural and Resource Economics executive director Brian Fisher.
Speaking at the Outlook 2001 conference this week, Dr Fisher said that while growth in commodity demand was likely to moderate in the short term, tightening world supplies of many commodities were expected to provide support for prices on world markets.
Reflecting a relatively low Australian exchange rate and higher volume shipped, the value of Australia’s commodity exports were forecast to increase from $72.2 billion in 1999-2000 to $86.3 billion in 2000-01 and $89.3 billion in 2001-02.
“Considerable uncertainty re-mains in the current world economic outlook. The key risk was associated with the economic prospects for the world’s largest economy, the US,” he said.
“A sharper than expected slowdown in US economic activity could markedly influence economic performance elsewhere in the world, including in our major trading partners in Asia.”
BNP-Paribas Asia Pacific chief economist Andrew Freris said the slowdown in US economic activity would affect Asian economies selectively, depending on the degree of their dependence on exports and especially exports to the US.
“Growth prospects in the Asian region in the next two years will be varying from the consistently high rates in China to the more modest ones in Indonesia and Thailand,” Mr Freris said.
“Asian economies will continue to develop stronger intraregional trade and Australia could seek an important role in this development.”
The head of economic analysis at the Reserve Bank of Australia, Malcolm Edey said the outlook for the Australian economy remained positive with inflation falling well within the 2-3 per cent target range over the next two years.
Figures released by the Aust-ralian Bureau of Statistics last week indicate that during the December quarter, 2000 merchandise imports exceeded merchandise exports by $7 million – the lowest excess of imports over exports since the December quarter 1997 when there was a surplus of exports over imports of $44 million.
Australia’s eight major trading partners received 62 per cent of Australia’s exports and provided 60 per cent of Australia’s imports.
Overall, Australia had a surplus of $747 million with these countries, compared to a deficit of $219 million in the September quarter.
Australia recorded a 27 per cent increase in its December surplus with Japan to $2,152 million; a 59 per cent increase in its surplus with Singapore; a 28 per cent increase in its trade surplus with New Zealand as well as a 29 per cent increase in its surplus with Taiwan.
Australia’s trade deficit with the US also fell by $300 million to $2,590 million during the quarter, while its deficit with the United Kingdom increased 70 per cent to $916 million.
Speaking at the Outlook 2001 conference this week, Dr Fisher said that while growth in commodity demand was likely to moderate in the short term, tightening world supplies of many commodities were expected to provide support for prices on world markets.
Reflecting a relatively low Australian exchange rate and higher volume shipped, the value of Australia’s commodity exports were forecast to increase from $72.2 billion in 1999-2000 to $86.3 billion in 2000-01 and $89.3 billion in 2001-02.
“Considerable uncertainty re-mains in the current world economic outlook. The key risk was associated with the economic prospects for the world’s largest economy, the US,” he said.
“A sharper than expected slowdown in US economic activity could markedly influence economic performance elsewhere in the world, including in our major trading partners in Asia.”
BNP-Paribas Asia Pacific chief economist Andrew Freris said the slowdown in US economic activity would affect Asian economies selectively, depending on the degree of their dependence on exports and especially exports to the US.
“Growth prospects in the Asian region in the next two years will be varying from the consistently high rates in China to the more modest ones in Indonesia and Thailand,” Mr Freris said.
“Asian economies will continue to develop stronger intraregional trade and Australia could seek an important role in this development.”
The head of economic analysis at the Reserve Bank of Australia, Malcolm Edey said the outlook for the Australian economy remained positive with inflation falling well within the 2-3 per cent target range over the next two years.
Figures released by the Aust-ralian Bureau of Statistics last week indicate that during the December quarter, 2000 merchandise imports exceeded merchandise exports by $7 million – the lowest excess of imports over exports since the December quarter 1997 when there was a surplus of exports over imports of $44 million.
Australia’s eight major trading partners received 62 per cent of Australia’s exports and provided 60 per cent of Australia’s imports.
Overall, Australia had a surplus of $747 million with these countries, compared to a deficit of $219 million in the September quarter.
Australia recorded a 27 per cent increase in its December surplus with Japan to $2,152 million; a 59 per cent increase in its surplus with Singapore; a 28 per cent increase in its trade surplus with New Zealand as well as a 29 per cent increase in its surplus with Taiwan.
Australia’s trade deficit with the US also fell by $300 million to $2,590 million during the quarter, while its deficit with the United Kingdom increased 70 per cent to $916 million.
