Are weak trading volumes telling us that a storm is coming?

Good Morning,

It looks like the storm clouds are coming… again…

US stocks fell for the first time in four days (Dow -217 points), reversing much of Tuesday's rally as disappointing results from Macy's Inc. to Walt Disney Co. heightened concern that American consumers remain hesitant to boost spending.

The misses from Disney and Macy's sent consumer discretionary shares tumbling the most in three months as investors await Friday's government report on retail sales. 

What is interesting is that the latest rally in equities has been on near all-time-low trading volumes….

This is a worry?


Because we want to see equities, commodities, foreign exchange and asset classes rally on large volumes and fall on weaker volumes…

The fact that in the US, an average of 7.2Billion dollars of shares are changing hands vs. 9.3Billion on average, isn’t positive for policy makers at all and the fed…

Keep an eye on this story developing, as volatility begins to rise…..

Swift IPO Update

For those involved in the Swift IPO, yesterday, its two “comparable peers” on the ASX (XTV, TV2), were up over 130% and 140% each…

This is positive for the sector, as swift actually has a real business, has actual revenues and has EBITDA…

Keep an eye on the float in early June…

So… What's on today?

Local data: None, NZ first quarter retail sales

Bank of England officials will probably leave their key rate at a record-low 0.5 per cent as Britain's referendum on its European Union membership clouds the nation's economic outlook. The decision, forecasts and vote split will be published at noon in London, followed by a press conference by governor Mark Carney. Noon in London.

Fed speakers: Boston's Eric Rosengren in Concord, NH. Esther George in Albuquerque, NM. Cleveland's Loretta Mester in Germany.

World Gold Council will publish a report on first-quarter global demand at midnight in New York - The Arab Economic Forum opens in Beirut. This year topics include the challenges facing regional economies from political instability, economic contraction and the global decline in oil prices.

Overseas data: Japan current account March; UK RICS housing price index April, Euro industrial output March; US weekly jobless claims, US import price index April

Earnings: Symantec, PetroBras, Nvidia, Enbridge, Banco de Brasil, Zurich Insurance Group, RWE, Credit Agricole, Aegon, Skanska, Perigo, Rheinmetal

The SPI is down 29 points this morning.

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