An ore quality risk assessment has cast a shadow over Greatland Resources’ FY26 guidance, offsetting the mid-tier miner’s quarterly results and prompting a sharp sell-off on Tuesday.
An ore quality risk assessment has cast a shadow over Greatland Resources’ FY26 guidance, offsetting the mid-tier miner’s quarterly results and prompting a sharp sell-off on Tuesday.
The ASX-listed gold and copper miner has applied a risk weighting to account for potential grade variability in Telfer’s run-of-mine stockpiles and some open pit sections, causing it to curb its FY26 gold production guidance by up to 80,000 ounces.
Shaun Day-led Greatland had initially forecast this year’s gold production to land between 300,000 and 340,000 ounces, but that figure has now been revised down to between 260,000 and 310,000 ounces.
“We felt it was appropriate and prudent to apply a risk factor to the expected grade of the ROM stockpiles,” Mr Day told investors during a results call.
“Although the ounces are still there, we wanted to provide a more conservative, high-confidence framework.”
The market reacted swiftly to the revised guidance: shares in Greatland dropped 24 per cent to close at $5.24, wiping more than $1 billion from its market capitalisation in just six short hours.
It marked a sharp reversal for the newly listed stock, which debuted on the ASX in June. Greatland shares rose 11 per cent on the company’s debut to $7.30 — well above the $6.60 offer price — and had mostly traded above $6.50 until the June quarter report was released.
Operationally, Greatland delivered within expectations. It produced 78,373 ounces of gold and 3,730 tonnes of copper for the June quarter, bringing FY25 output to 198,319 ounces of gold and 8,429 tonnes of copper.
All-in sustaining costs came in at $1,736/oz — below the miner’s prior guidance.
Still, output fell short of the March quarter, when the company delivered more than 90,000 ounces of gold.
Sales for the June period totalled 87,529 ounces of gold and 3,740 tonnes of copper, while Greatland ended the quarter with $575 million in cash and no debt.
Despite the June quarter slowdown, Mr Day said FY25 was a “transformational” year for Greatland, calling out the return to steady production and the miner’s $490 million ASX listing as some of the highlights.
Just $50 million in new equity was issued as part of Greatland’s float, with Newmont selling down $440 million of its holding and reducing its stake to just under 10 per cent. Andrew Forrest’s Wyloo remains a significant shareholder.
Looking ahead, Greatland has earmarked up to $260 million for life-extension works at Telfer in FY26.
These include pit cutbacks, underground development and tailings expansion, alongside a record 240,000-metre drill program to update resources and reserves.
Heading into FY26, gold production is expected to take place at a higher AISC of between $2,400 and $2,800 an ounce, reflecting the lower-grade ore and increased development spend at Telfer.
Meanwhile, feasibility work continues at Havieron, where Greatland is targeting first output of 2.8 million tonnes per annum.
A final investment decision is due at the former Newmont asset in late 2025, but early works are under way, including on an expansion case that could lift output to up to 4.5 million tonnes per annum.
The company expects early cash flow and shared infrastructure with Telfer to support that growth path.
