OPINION: The South Australian election reflects angst about the two-party system.
MUCH will be made of the South Australian election held last month: the historic win for Labor, pitiful result for the Liberals and surge in One Nation support.
But the word consternation might work best in any analysis of what happened on March 21.
One Nation’s 20-plus per cent of the primary vote goes to show how dismayed many voters are with politics and the two-party system, which has held our democracy together since federation.
It was a protest vote felt most jarringly by the Liberals, of course, because they have failed to connect and convince voters on the right. Forget the centre, where most people exist, because Labor has that cohort largely, but not exclusively, wrapped up.
What is confusing in all the consternation is what the One Nation voters think they’re achieving by ditching the Liberals for a party built around the alienating political sub-culture built on the back of one name: Pauline Hanson.
Strip back the talk of orange dawn, orange tsunami or orange crush, for that matter, and the biggest winner in SA was the South Australian Labor Party, which stands for everything One Nation is against.
Labor secured the greatest victory in SA history, which means it will almost certainly win a third term at the next state election.
The old saying of cutting off your nose to spite your face comes to mind.
Another point to consider in all the One Nation revelry is the Hanson party’s track record.
Whenever it scores a win, whether it be in state or federal houses of parliament, the party, or the people elected under its name, implode.
Mark Latham. Enough said.
If the point of the unprecedented level of backing for One Nation in SA – and perhaps at the federal election come 2028 – is about repeating the shock and awe felt across the US political landscape through the rise of Trumpism, then those SA voters are wearing blinkers.
For example, the world continues to tremble, both economically and militarily, because of Donald Trump’s Iran idiocy.
Australia doesn’t need a party of grievance. It needs politicians who can create cohesion, unity and a sense of purpose for the country.
And that’s where the Liberals are flailing about at a national and state level.
The party appears to be in a state of identity paralysis, wedged by the teal independent movement on one side and One Nation on the other.
In the Western Australian parliament, One Nation holds two seats in the upper house, or legislative council.
At the 2025 election, the party polled just 4 per cent of the primary vote, or 61,174 individual votes.
Before the election, Ben Dawkins, who was a dumped Labor MP-turned-One Nation politician, quit the Hanson party, changed his name to Aussie Trump and failed to win as an independent.
It was another example of the madness normally swirling in and around One Nation.
But that’s not to say a combination of publicity and perception flowing from the SA election shouldn’t have the Liberals worried here.
The swing towards One Nation was also more than 20 per cent, which proves the strength of the message voters were willing to send.
Liberal leader Basil Zempilas touched on the challenge faced by his party now and into the future when he spoke at the US-based Conservative Political Action Conference in Perth earlier this month.
“If you lose the people who work hard and do the right thing and just want a fair shot, then you don’t just lose elections, you lose the very purpose of our movement,” he told the conference.
He referred to the cohort of voters walking away from the Liberals as “lost Australians”.
“Just as John Howard did 30 years ago, today the Liberal Party has to focus on that group,” Mr Zempilas said.
As the member for the marginal seat of Churchlands, Mr Zempilas knows the fine line he must now tread. Consider his serious concerns about the party’s decision to abandon a net zero emissions target.
On the back of Peter Malinauskas’ thumping win in SA, a hard-headed Labor operative made the following observation.
“If the Libs tack right, they legitimise One Nation, and One Nation can outflank them on the right,” he said.
“Plus, they lose any of what remains in that teal territory.”
Much more consternation is to come.
