Only in Western Australia is the rate of wine grape production in 2006-07 expected to exceed that of the previous year, with production estimated to have fallen by 33 per cent nationally, according to the Australian Bureau of Agricultural and Resource Economics.
The full text of an ABARE announcement is pasted below
Wine grape production in 2006-07 is estimated to have fallen by 33 per cent from the previous vintage, to 1.26 million tonnes, according to a new ABARE report Australian Wine Grape Production Projections to 2008-09.
'Although there was an increase in total bearing area in 2006-07, this was more than offset by below average yields as a result of low rainfall, lower allocations of water for irrigation and frosts in a number of regions,' ABARE Executive Director, Phillip Glyde said on releasing the report.
Premium wine grape production, which normally accounts for approximately 90 per cent of wine grapes grown in Australia, is well down in 2006-07 at an estimated 1.1 million tonnes.
Production of premium red wine grapes in 2006-07 is estimated to be hit the hardest, down 40 per cent from the previous year, while premium white varieties are expected to drop by nearly 30 per cent.
Production in warm climate areas is estimated to have fallen by 26 per cent in 2006-07, while in cool climate areas the estimated fall is 45 per cent, with production declining most in South Australia, due largely to frost damage.
'The impact of frosts and lower water allocations in 2007 will also be felt in 2008. Even with average seasonal conditions, wine grape production is projected to only recover to 1.5 million tonnes, still 400 000 tonnes below record harvest,' Mr Glyde said.
However, if seasonal conditions remain drier than average this year and water allocations are reduced further, production in 2007-08 could be around 930 000 tonnes. If there are zero water allocations in the Murray Darling, production will be even lower.
Mr Glyde noted that total bearing area is projected to increase modestly for each of the next three years, with the bearing area of white wine grapes increasing by more than for red wine grapes. Grape growers appear to be favouring the expansion of shiraz and chardonnay in each of the red and white grape varieties.
With average seasonal conditions, 2008-09 total production is projected to be back to around the 2004-05 record. Although white wine grape production is projected to exceed the 2004-05 harvest of 867 000 tonnes by 5 per cent, production of red wine grapes is projected to be about 5 per cent less, at around 1 million tonnes.
The research conducted by ABARE was commissioned by the Grape and Wine Research and Development Corporation.
