23/06/2009 - 10:06

Export earnings tipped to fall 18%

23/06/2009 - 10:06

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Earnings from Australia's farm exports are forecast to perform better than expected in fiscal 2010 while mineral exports are tipped to fall on the back of lower coal and iron ore prices, a commodities forecaster says.

Earnings from Australia's farm exports are forecast to perform better than expected in fiscal 2010 while mineral exports are tipped to fall on the back of lower coal and iron ore prices, a commodities forecaster says.

In an update to its March quarter forecasts, the Australian Bureau of Agriculture and Resource Economics said total earnings from exports are forecast to fall by 18 per cent to $160 billion in the 2010 financial year.

It follows an estimated rise of 31 per cent to $196 billion for this financial year.

 

The announcement is below:

 

Despite the global economic downturn, Australia's farm export earnings are forecast to rise in both 2008-09 and 2009-10. This and other commodity forecasts for 2009-10 are contained in the June issue of Australian commodities, released today by Phillip Glyde, Executive Director of ABARE.

"A forecast increase in winter crop production combined with relatively favourable world prices for many agricultural products is expected to support farm export earnings in the short term," Mr Glyde said.

However, total earnings from Australia's commodity exports are forecast to fall by 18 per cent to $160 billion in 2009-10, following an estimated rise of 31 per cent to $196 billion in 2008-09.

Farm export earnings are forecast to increase by a further 2 per cent to $32.5 billion in 2009-10, following a strong rise of 16 per cent to $31.8 billion in 2008-09. The updated forecast for 2009-10 represents a marginal upward revision from the forecast of $32.1 billion released by ABARE in the March issue of Australian commodities.

Farm products for which export earnings are forecast to increase in 2009-10 include wheat, barley, canola, lupins, peas, rice, raw cotton and sugar.

For energy and minerals, export earnings are estimated to increase by 36 per cent to $160 billion in 2008-09.

Significantly lower export earnings are forecast for 2009-10 mainly a result of lower contract prices for bulk commodities coal and iron ore. However, export earnings are still expected to remain above 2007-08 levels at $124 billion.

The value of energy exports is forecast to fall by 34 per cent to around $50 billion in 2009-10. For metals and other minerals, export earnings are forecast to decline by 12 per cent to around $75 billion in 2009-10.

 

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