Let’s not write off 2016 before it has started; there’s plenty of potential upside just over the horizon.
Let’s not write off 2016 before it has started; there’s plenty of potential upside just over the horizon.
After a year like the one we have just had, it will be hard for many to get into a festive mood or relax during this important season.
While those of us who live in Western Australia can be thankful of the security we enjoy and the natural bounty the state offers us, this Christmas will be a tough time for many.
There is little sign that 2016 will be much better.
The last time it felt like this was in late 2008, when the GFC had enveloped Australia and much doubt hung in the air with regard to our economic future.
Around the globe, economies floundered and failed yet, by the middle of 2009, the resources sector recovered and went on to enjoy nearly half a decade of strong growth.
It was like WA was immune to a disease that afflicted most of the developed world.
It would be easy to suggest that all we saw was the deferral of problems as China propped up our economy, but that would be too simplistic.
The global conditions of 2009 were very different to those we can expect in 2016.
While there are some strong signals of serious trouble out of China, it remains a command economy that can pull economic levers untouchable in democracies until times are more desperate.
In any case, China’s woes are not pulling down the rest of the globe. If anything, the worldwide synchronicity of economies that generated the massive crash of 2008 appears to be over and various countries are coming out of it at different speeds.
That creates a far more diverse situation, which is safer for all of us.
However, the world is not out of the woods yet. The US economic recovery is still somewhat patchy and Europe’s revival risks being swamped by a political crisis driven by massive immigration.
Exacerbating this mess is the war in the Middle East, which is inflaming regional and even global tensions.
None of this is good for business in WA, except, perhaps, those in the gold sector.
Being a stable, low-risk source of key commodities does help, but Australia is not a superpower when it comes to raw materials of war and crisis, namely oil.
Our key exports thrive when all is well in the world; when business is confident, consumers splurge, and voters demand economic growth.
However, crises can be averted and economies like the US can, single-handedly, pull the world out its mess if it gets a full head of steam. So let’s not write off 2016 before its even started.
On a more positive note, difficult times call for creativity and innovation, something that resonates loudly in Australia at the moment.
WA is better positioned than many anti-resources voices would have us believe. Mining and petroleum are bedrock industries that generate a level of jobs and income that would be the envy of many nations.
They are also industries that have high risks; so, along with our harsh natural environment, they have bred entrepreneurial people who can find a way to move forward when others would just give in.
Technology is helping drive massive and rapid changes worldwide, and our entrepreneurial business leaders, coupled with a well-educated workforce attracted to a lifestyle that is hard to beat, are as good as any when it comes to finding profitable ways to harness that.
