Xi Jinping may have reached out to world leaders but is still firmly focused on China’s long game.
THE National Congress of the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) has recently extended and entrenched the power of President Xi Jinping.
Attempts to repair relations internationally followed. Because the relationship with China is so central to Australia’s defence objectives, I sought the expert opinion of Professor Gordon Flake, chief executive of the Perth USAsia Centre.
The centre is Australia’s leading thinktank, focusing on the geo-political issues, policy development and the strengthening of relationships between Australia, the Indo-Pacific and the US.
At the time of writing, protests had begun to ripple across China over the zero-COVID policy.
Professor Flake remarked that this made “domestic developments in China more dynamic than they have been for a while”.
“Given the strength of the Chinese state and its security apparatus, it is still far too early to conclude that these demonstrations pose any threat to President Xi Jinping or Communist Party rule … however, they are a spark and worth watching,” he said.
International reporting suggested there was no sign of a viable challenger to President Xi following the CCP Congress.
“There are downsides to unchallenged power,” Professor Flake said.
“There are no clear successors or succession process and no checks and balances.
“The risk of catastrophic mistakes increases as there is no one to challenge misguided policies, and as there is no one to blame; course correction is more difficult.
“President Xi’s solidification of power has been a process and has already impacted China’s foreign policy.
“Wolf warrior diplomats, who are less concerned about China’s image or interests abroad than speaking to an ‘audience of one’, were already an issue before the party congress.”
At the CCP Congress, President Xi spoke, to loud applause, of the desire to reunify Taiwan.
Western commentators have noted he did not, however, establish any timelines.
I asked Professor Flake of his view of China’s intentions towards Taiwan and how has this been affected by the global reaction to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.
“For most of the past 70-plus years, the PRC did not have the capability to take over Taiwan military, particularly in light of a potential involvement of the United States,” he said.
“The most concerning trends have been the growing strength of the PRC military and the risk that they conclude that they now have the ability to successfully invade Taiwan and to deter US involvement.
“The war in Ukraine, recent local elections in Taiwan, growing US and global articulations of support for Taiwan, and even domestic political developments in China will all affect this calculation.
“This uncertainty is the source of considerable global anxiety.”
With regards to an apparent desire from all parties to thaw relations, I asked Professor Flake about China’s motives, and if this apparent desire to re-engage was genuine.
“I prefer a different temperature-related analogy,” he said.
“Parties have instead sought to ‘reduce the temperature’, avoiding unnecessary rhetoric or provocative language.
“The underlying issues remain unchanged and unresolved.
“However, smiles and handshakes have provided a better environment for discussing differences.
“Unfortunately, for China, President Xi Jinping’s very public dressing down of Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau undid much of the goodwill.”
While these significant differences remain, there has been some attempt to identify areas China and other nations can collaborate on.
I expressed my view that establishing a working relationship on some issues while being opposed on others forms an important element of relationship building that could influence the more contestable discussions.
“I fully agree with you,” Professor Flake said.
“There are many global issues which require cooperation.
“Last week’s ASEAN leaders meeting, G20 leaders meeting, at APEC Summit are evidence of the many issues on which other countries in the region and globally seek both Chinese and US participation.
“This includes trade, development, investment and infrastructure.”
Uncertainty clearly remains. Regardless of reducing the temperature, China’s international policies remain concerning for Australian interests.
Instability in China or the prospect of challenges to President Xi’s power offer little comfort.
The Washington Quarterly (Kendall-Taylor and Frantz, 2014) observed that “only 20 per cent of autocratic leader exits from 1950-2012 led to democracy”.
Improved relations are always welcomed, as are constructive working relationships on important issues.
Professor Flake’s comments and historical data suggest we must not allow this to weaken our commitment to defence capability and defence industry development.
• Kristian Constantinides is the general manager of Airflite, and chairperson of AIDN-WA; the opinions expressed are purely his own.
