It was a wild old week on the ASX, with records tumbling like dominoes as the index soared past the 9000-mark for the first time in its history.
Globally, United States president Donald Trump commanded the spotlight, as usual, basking in one of his favourite activities - photo ops with world leaders. The leader of the free world kicked off the week with talks in Alaska alongside Russian president Vladimir Putin to try to broker peace in Ukraine. He then jetted to trade negotiations with European Union leaders at the White House to temper his cherished tariff threats.
Though it seemed a positive week for the US, unfortunately, the top and tech-heavy market caught a chill, as the world’s largest company Nvidia slumped, dragging the Nasdaq down 3 per cent.
Locally, unhedged gold miners were showcased during this reporting season. Australia’s largest goldie, Northern Star Resources, astounded the market with a record $536 million in underlying free cash flow - a 16 per cent jump from last year - and FY25 revenue up 30 per cent to $6.4 billion.
Northern Star’s robust balance sheet has easily absorbed last year’s blockbuster $5 billion acquisition of De Grey Mining, sparking envy across the industry for the nation’s newest 10-million-ounce monster.
Most sectors look geared up for a stronger 2026, buoyed by bullish guidance across the board.
The lithium market held onto its gains, for a change, with spodumene prices surging from under US$700 a tonne (A$1100/t) to US$1000/t (A$1560/t) in recent weeks, sparked by mine closures in China.
Australian hard-rock producers are hopeful, even though only lithium titan Pilbara Minerals is managing to stay comfortably afloat in the languishing lithium price.
More than 50 per cent of global lithium resources and 40 per cent of production remain locked in the salt flats of South America’s famed Lithium Triangle. And Australia has found it tough to compete on price with brine projects, which continue to dominate the lowest-cost quartile of production.
As has become a familiar tune in the weekly Runners column, rare earths juniors dominated, crawling out of the woodwork to prove ‘rare earths’ might not be so rare after all.
The Runner of the Week, a Chinese-held minnow, didn’t just break records - it obliterated them with a run so wild it’s already folklore, even if the news behind it was, frankly, a bit underwhelming. The company’s Monday run offers a masterclass in capital structuring as it vaulted from one of the ASX’s tiniest valuations to a $500 million market cap in under two days.
KAILI RESOURCES (ASX: KLR)
Up 8333% (3.6c – $3.18)
Bulls N’ Bears’ Runner of the Week, nay, the century, is Kaili Resources, which waltzed its way to ASX legend status with a gobsmacking 8333 per cent surge on Monday, from 3.6 cents a share to $3.18 per share in a single day.
There wasn’t any news on the week, but the tightly Chinese-held stock briefly ballooned its market cap from sub-$1 million to a dizzying $500 million by Monday afternoon on just $1.9 million in stock traded.
The previous record holder, Stemcell United, jumped a whopping 3054 per cent in one day in 2017’s cannabis-crazed market - a margin that looks positively minuscule next to this Aussie rare earths hopeful.
Things kicked off Friday on the ‘earth-shattering’ news that the junior had received approval from South Australia’s mining regulator to drill its rare earths projects across Lameroo, Karte and Coodalya on the Limestone Coast in the state’s southeast. Kaili’s share price closed up 500 per cent on Friday at 3.6c on just $6000 of stock traded.
The company hasn’t even hired a driller yet – that would be tough with only $15,000 in the bank. Kaili has assays from historic holes recording 1-metre hits up to 356 parts per million (ppm) total rare earth oxides (TREO) from 18m, which is hardly a bonanza intersection.
By Monday, it was pure chaos. Kaili opened at 4.1c to start the show and with 94 per cent of its shares locked up by its top 20 shareholders - mostly Chinese investors - the trading bots went berserk, driving the price up and up on the limited stock put up on the sell side to a staggering high of $3.18 per share by 3:30pm AEST.
Largest shareholder Treasure Unicorn, which owns 51 per cent of Kaili’s holding company, hit a paper fortune of well over $250 million, before the stock plummeted to $1.08 a share in under 20 minutes to close the day early.
The ASX didn’t sit on its hands and slapped seven trading halts and a speeding ticket throughout the day, finally halting Kaili six minutes before close. There’s no doubt day traders were trapped in this beautiful Chinese finger trap.
The company didn’t recommence trading until Thursday, when it inevitably opened lower at 53ca share, meaning plenty of day traders would have had to pony up the cash for their day trades on Monday - before losing a bundle on Thursday.
With just $15,000 cash and a $4.6 million loan from a Hong Kong investment firm, Kaili’s balance sheet is as thin as its assay results. If you’re chasing the next rare earths hype train in South Australia, beware: this record-breaking run might be more mirage than miracle.
Kaili is aiming to tap into its Limestone Coast project for clay-hosted rare earths, inspired by nearby Australian Rare Earths’ 236-million-tonne resources grading 748ppm TREO.
But with no drilling underway, no driller booked and no line of site to results, the news that broke records wouldn’t excite a geologist’s pet rock.
Monday’s madness seems more about a tight share registry than a genuine breakthrough. If this minnow can deliver a resource worth its $500 million peak, it’ll be the comeback story of the century - but for now, it’s a lesson in market hype over substance.
MAGNETITE MINES (ASX: MGT)
Up 308% (7.1c – 29c)
Snagging silver on this week’s Bulls N’ Bears Runners list is iron ore-turned-rare earths player Magnetite Mines, which joined the prevailing winds in South Australia by identifying a bounty of rare earths at its Ironback Hill project, conveniently up the road from Kaili.
Magnetite says the near-surface, clay-hosted mineralisation lies adjacent to its iron ore deposit and was identified by re-assays of archived drill samples. The project was originally drilled for iron ore but returned promising intercepts such as 8m grading 1153ppm TREO, including a handy 215ppm neodymium, from just 12m depth.
The results are much more promising than its record-breaking neighbour and seriously hint at a dual iron-rare earth play emerging in the Festival State. Magnetite Mines is primarily focused on its Razorback iron ore project in South Australia, where it aims to develop one of Australia’s largest undeveloped magnetite deposits.
Magnetite’s Ironback project is adjacent to Razorback, is also showing its rare earth credentials. The company plans to run low-cost leachability tests at the project to assess whether its metallurgy warrants broader exploration.
It tried its best to pull a Kaili on Tuesday as its shares shot up to a high of 29c from last week’s close of 7.1c a share, giving Magnetite a more than respectable 308 per cent spike on $1.5 million in stock traded.
The company’s geology team is scouring its vast tenements for more critical minerals, while balancing its iron ore ambitions with the growing allure of rare earths.
Investors riding the South Australian rare earths wave might hope it makes a pivot, as magnetite takes second fiddle in a red-hot Aussie rare earths market. If these assays lead to a viable rare earths deposit, Magnetite could be featuring as Australia’s next critical minerals contender.
ARGENT BIOPHARMA (ASX: RGT)
Up 300% (8c – 32c)
Falling just a nose behind Magnetite - and a country mile behind Kaili – on the Runners list this week is newly crowned cannabis player Argent BioPharma, which conjured memories of Stemcell and 2017’s pot stock mania with a 300 per cent rocket on Tuesday.
The trigger was a blockbuster deal to acquire key assets from Aussie cannabis player AusCann Group Holdings for its Neuvis SEDDS drug delivery platform, a 48 per cent stake in CannPal Animal Therapeutics and a 19.99 per cent holding in ECC Pharm Limited.
In return, Argent will issue 25 million shares valued at US$15 million ($23.37 million), pending shareholder approval, in a deal that looks set to strengthen its global pharma ambitions.
Argent BioPharma is already a big time clinical-stage biotech player for cannabinoid-based treatments, particularly for epilepsy and chronic diseases. Its new focus on innovative drug delivery systems and European manufacturing likely enticed it towards the Neuvis platform.
Argent says its acquisition adds German distribution to its European muscle and aligns with the company’s push for a US listing.
From last Friday’s close of 8c a share to a high of 32c, the 300 per cent stock surge occurred on just $500,000 in paper changing hands, as the play tried to prove the sector has still got the legs to match it with the booming rare earths sector.
With a strengthened pipeline and European Union infrastructure, Argent looks ready to scale its IP-driven model worldwide. If it clears regulatory hurdles and secures a US listing, this biotech could be off to the races in the larger US cannabinoid market.
OCTAVA MINERALS (ASX: OCT)
Up 109% (3.3c – 6.9c)
Rounding out this week’s Runners list is critical minerals maverick Octava Minerals. Another in the list of rare earths hopefuls, this feisty minnow unveiled an ingenious, cost-effective and environmentally sustainable extraction method for critical minerals at its Byro rare earths and lithium project in Western Australia’s Gascoyne region.
The company revealed on Thursday that it achieved a biomining breakthrough for its Permian black shales at Byro. European partner BiotaTec achieved a staggering 68–75 per cent extraction for the magnet rare earths neodymium, praseodymium, dysprosium, alongside a 40 per cent recovery for accompanying lithium, vanadium and terbium in mineralisation.
The exciting results were achieved within 24–48 hours using microbial cultures – bacteria, fungi or plant cells that break down rocks. The method is already used in Australia’s highest-grade gold mine, Fosterville.
As the market drilled down on Octava’s microbe-derived critical mineral credentials, its share price buzzed back to life. It flew up 109 per cent on Thursday to a high of 6.9c per share from last week’s close of 3.3c on nearly $1 million in stock traded. This was the company’s highest turnover in nearly a year.
The project’s 30-kilometre strike of black shales, which are up to 100m thick, could host a low-cost, sustainable supply of metals for magnets and batteries. With export potential through the region’s Port of Geraldton and access to renewable energy hubs, BiotaTec’s proven bio-heap-leaching promises a rapid, eco-friendly extraction compared to chemical-heavy methods of old.
If Octava scales its microbial success to industrial levels, it could join the ranks of WA’s low-cost critical minerals suppliers. Rare earths are back in vogue - and it’s all about the all-important processing. Byro’s new potential could be this plucky junior’s ticket to the big leagues.
Is your ASX-listed company doing something interesting? Contact: matt.birney@businessnews.com.au
By Andrew Todd
