The US-Iran rollercoaster rolls on, with every day a new revelation and a new reality. As the week started, investors saw a potential peace deal quickly escalate to war and attacks by the United States by lunchtime, only for the following day to see it back to promises of a deal by President Trump, followed by yet more war.
By Thursday, investors didn’t know which way was up, with the ASX opened relatively flat before conceding a whopping 1.5 per cent by midday after Iran fired warning shots at tankers leaving the Strait of Hormuz.
Trump denied anything was awry Friday, stating US and Iranian negotiators had reached a tentative agreement to extend the ceasefire in the 3-month-old war by 60 days – which Iran quickly refuted before firing on a US base in Kuwait (intercepted).
Somehow, the ASX quickly rebounded, with absolutely nobody knowing what was going on and everyone trading in knee-jerk reactions to by-the-hour news highlights.
Despite geopolitical tensions, the safe haven of gold is experiencing its own game of ping-pong.
The global depletion of international reserves has reignited lingering concerns about high oil prices and, with it, global inflation.
Gold gave up nearly 4 per cent this week, dipping to A$6000 an ounce before clawing its way back to near A$6300 on Friday – to think it was breaking A$7000 just months ago. The culprit? Bond yields. With cash and government debt now offering yields north of 5 per cent, the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding gold has shot up, flipping the old relationship on its head.
While the big end of town was trying to make sense of it all, a few of our Aussie upstarts have somehow managed to have a ripper week. A couple of familiar defence tech go-getters featured again, but the eventual title was snatched by an old-school commodity making a comeback: a metallurgical coal revival in the US and Queensland's Surat Basin.
WHITE ENERGY COMPANY (ASX: WEC)
Up 309% (6.6c – 27c)
This week’s Bulls N’ Bears ASX Runner of the Week is White Energy Company, which caught the market’s attention after unveiling ambitious plans to acquire two metallurgical coal assets in the US and Queensland, rocketing its share price more than 300 per cent.
Even without any fresh news during the week, investors piled in, betting on the company’s strategic move as global energy security concerns continue to fuel a renaissance in coal supply and infrastructure. The proposed deal includes the Lolley No.1 underground met coal project in Alabama and the Tin Hut Creek project in Queensland's prolific Surat Basin.
Lolley No.1 is a particularly savvy pickup, coming with established infrastructure, including an on-site coal handling and preparation plant, as well as crucial rail and barge access. The company says the operation is currently on care and maintenance, with a staged restart planned to deliver first production as soon as 12 months after recommissioning.
Back on home soil, White Energy is set to take over an option held by private company Oceltip Coal 2 to buy the Tin Hut Creek project for $4 million in cash. Upon Tin Hut becoming a mining lease, White Energy has agreed to pay Oceltip a $1 million success fee in cash or shares.
The snag gives the company a massive 4,000-square-kilometre footprint in the Surat Basin, a region known for its historical coal-bearing sequences within the world-class Walloon Subgroup.
To bankroll the acquisitions, the company has also completed a $15 million capital raise.
What makes this story particularly interesting for market watchers is the company’s exceptionally tight register and the major backers behind this coal comeback.
Mining veterans Brian Flannery - previously of $3.5-billion coal takeover Felix Resources - and the estate of Travers Duncan control a whopping 89 per cent of the company, meaning the loose shares are rarer than an unaccounted-for barrel of oil in transit in open water. For those looking to get meaningful exposure in the next big coal story, it’s going to be easier said than done.
THRIVE TRIBE TECHNOLOGIES LTD (ASX: 1TT)
Up 200% (0.2c – 0.6c)
Charging into our runner-up spot is Thrive Tribe Technologies, which ran after a clever relaunch of its legacy WooBoard and REFFIND platforms into a slick, AI-enabled workforce and engagement suite, with the buzzword “defence” in its capabilities.
In addition to targeting defence, the company is going after the lucrative enterprise and government sectors. The revamped software is designed to support everything from workforce communication and employee wellbeing to engagement analytics and operational readiness across large, distributed teams.
The move into defence is particularly timely, with applications being explored for secure communications and for monitoring fatigue and burnout. It is also being explored as a non-clinical tool to help identify potential PTSD risks in soldiers and workers operating in high-pressure environments.
The relaunch has been backed by a successful $4 million raise aimed at modernising the platform and accelerating its commercial rollout, showing there’s serious intent behind the pivot.
ANTEOTECH LTD (ASX: ADO)
Up 172% (1.8c – 4.9c)
Our bronze medallist this week is battery tech player AnteoTech, which delivered another huge week as momentum continued to build around its Ultranode battery technology and its massive potential in defence drone applications.
While there was no fresh announcement, investors were still digesting recent third-party validation work from the prestigious Battery Innovation Center in the US. The results were simply eye-catching. Testing of the company’s Ultranode 95 technology in commercial-format battery cells showed energy density improvements of more than 40 per cent over conventional anodes.
Crucially, it also smashed the cycle-life thresholds typically required for military drone systems, achieving more than 300 cycles at 70 per cent capacity retention - comfortably ahead of the 200-cycle requirement. The technology also scaled cleanly into larger-format manufacturing, removing one of the biggest headaches for next-gen battery developers.
With customer evaluations already underway and additional samples now being shipped to US drone battery manufacturers, AnteoTech seems to be making all the right moves. The company is now advancing discussions on non-exclusive joint development agreements with battery groups that supply US defence drone programs.
With the global drone market forecast to explode to US$160 billion by 2030, even a small slice of that pie could be transformational.
HARVEST TECHNOLOGY GROUP (ASX: HTG)
Up 170% (1c – 2.7c)
Rounding out our list of runners is another military applications dynamo, Harvest Technology Group. While there was no major news, a substantial $6.5 million raise at 1 cent per share through Alpine Capital was a powerful show of faith in the company’s direction.
The company is developing communications technology designed to keep remote and autonomous systems connected in challenging operating environments - a capability becoming increasingly important in modern military operations.
As drones, robotic vehicles and unmanned maritime systems become more widely deployed, maintaining reliable communications and video transmission in contested environments has become a critical battlefield challenge.
Harvest says its technology can solve one of the most urgent problems on the modern battlefield: maintaining communications with unmanned drones, robots, and vehicles.
Last month, the company completed an independent US market assessment examining Nodestream’s suitability for defence and government applications. The review found that the technology aligned well with existing US operational requirements for “communications, networking and secure data transport”.
The findings are now helping shape Harvest’s expansion strategy across the United States, Europe and the broader Asia-Pacific region.
Is your ASX-listed company doing something interesting? Contact: matt.birney@businessnews.com.au
