War wages on in the Middle East and unsurprisingly, the oil price chart looks positively parabolic.
Brent oil is well and truly settling in for the long ride at the US$ 100-a-barrel mark, which will inevitably have serious inflationary implications globally.
What started as a relatively stable week turned into absolute bloodshed on Thursday morning, following the Dow’s drop of more than 2.5 per cent, triggering a two per cent rout at the ASX opening bell, a few hours later.
Accounting for almost 30 per cent of all input costs, oil is the lifeblood of industry and a major contributor to inflation when things go haywire. Unsurprisingly, the US Federal Reserve commentary has turned decidedly hawkish on the back of current energy prices, with experts now baking in at least one 0.25 per cent rate cut for the entire year.
Causing a massive bout of the jitters, oil soared to US$115 a barrel on news that Iran had hit Qatar’s huge oil and gas terminal, wiping out 17 per cent of Qatar’s LNG capacity, which could take up to 5 years to rebuild.
The spike sent tremors through the rest of the commodity complex, with copper dropping nearly 7 per cent this week to US$11,800 a tonne.
Gold has copped the double whammy of rate cuts and profit-taking and is on track for its biggest weekly loss in six years. At one stage, the yellow metal shed 10 per cent, dropping as low as US$4500 an ounce before bouncing back to US$4690 – although not before gold stocks erased almost all of their 2026 gains.
The oil shortages are not just confined to decisions of our exceptional planning committee of clowns in Canberra. Even remote gold miner Blue Cap Mining announced it had been forced to stand down two-thirds of its FIFO staff due to diesel shortage fears. Topping off a dreadful week for the goldies, Australia’s biggest gold miner, Northern Star, has shed more than 40 per cent of its share price on a mix of the Middle East and guidance drops.
As the carnage drags on and oil shortages deepen in what is arguably one of the most resource-rich corners of the globe – go figure greenies – Australia’s top refined petroleum supplier, Malaysia, has warned it could turn off the taps if the conflict continues to drag on.
All this doom and gloom has infected the portfolio with so much red that it is hard to ignore. However, this writer has managed to avoid most of the negative press and is currently perched up at the picturesque Manly beach to round out the working week…tough for some, I guess.
Our Runners are undoubtedly light on this bearish week, with only a few companies pulling off 50 per cent gains in another market shocker. With one of our runners, in fact, just a recovery from its personal market barbecue on the previous Friday.
IMMUTEP LTD (ASX: IMM)
Up 53% (4.5c – 6.9c)
Rather fittingly, on a week of woe, the Bulls N’ Bears Runner of the Week is oncology biotech Immutep Limited. Unfortunately, there’s no feel-good story behind this week’s top mover – just a sharp rebound from a cancer stock that was absolutely torched the week prior.
The oncology specialist was up around 53 per cent at one stage this week from a close of 4.5c last week. That was after the company shed nearly 90 per cent of its value last Friday, or around half a billion dollars in market cap.
The terrible news came after an independent commission recommended the discontinuation of its TACTI-004 Phase III study on non-small cell lung cancer for its lead candidate, eftilagimod alfa (efti).
Despite the crash to 2.5c last Friday, the company is reported to have some $99 million in cash as of the first half of FY26, creating a situation where the market cap fell below the company’s cash backing.
It's another one bites the dust for Australia’s suffering biotech cohort, with Immutep delivering a fresh blow to a sector that’s been taken to the woodshed over the past six months.
The company will effectively pull the pin on the efti trial - not exactly the kind of clinical “milestone” investors were hoping for – with enrolment set to be halted and Immutep moving into an orderly wind-down of the trial.
It’s a clinical comedown that underscores just how unforgiving late-stage drug development can be, particularly in a market that’s lost its appetite for long-dated biotech bets.
To its credit, the company says it will keep pushing ahead with the rest of its pipeline. And there was at least one small silver lining for the balance sheet… with TACTI-004 off the books, Immutep now expects its cash runway to stretch well beyond its previous guidance of the second quarter of calendar 2027.
Let’s hope it proves more adept at conserving cash than it has been at chasing a cure.
BLUE STAR HELIUM LTD (ASX: BNL)
Up 50% (0.6c – 0.9c)
Slotting into second place this week is the alternative fuel-focused Blue Star Helium.
With no fresh news to speak of, you could be forgiven for thinking this week’s run was on hot air – but instead it’s lighter than air. The project is fast emerging as a valuable new source of helium - an inert gas used as a coolant for magnets in MRI machines, in semiconductor manufacturing and in fibre optics.
The company’s Galactica joint venture, tied to its Pinyon Canyon processing plant in Colorado, has been quietly edging towards commercial helium production, with the market ratcheting up its share price by some 80 per cent this month.
Blue Star says it is now extremely close to first meaningful production, with the Pinyon Canyon plant commissioned and already doing some heavy lifting.
Importantly, carbon dioxide is now being stripped from the helium-rich gas stream – a key step that allows for cleaner processing and a saleable helium product.
The groundwork for sales is also falling into place. Spot helium sales arrangements have been locked in, while talks around longer-term offtake agreements for both helium and carbon dioxide are ongoing.
First helium flowed back in December of last year, with the recovery unit brought online in the same month. By January, the first tube trailer had rolled out the gate, ticking another box on the path to steady-state production.
Blue Star says from here, it’s all about scale, as it steadily ramps up through 2026, with additional well tie-ins and infill drilling planned to boost throughput at Pinyon Canyon.
The immediate focus is on stabilising production rates and locking in commercial offtake to underpin longer-term revenue.
With oil and gas markets going nuts, Blue Star’s push into helium is landing at an opportune moment, offering off-takers a welcome alternative to paying US$100-plus a barrel as the war drags on.
PATAGONIA LITHIUM LTD (ASX: PL3)
Up 43% (14c – 20c)
Our final Runner, despite radio silence on the news front, is Patagonia Lithium, with the market happily bidding the stock up more than 43 per cent. It looks like a classic case of “imminent” assays and anticipation of a looming resource upgrade at its Argentina lithium project in the world-class Lithium Triangle.
The company is fresh off a February drilling campaign at its Formentera project in Jujuy Province, Argentina, and all signs point to a promising resource upgrade as lithium prices bounce back into vogue.
Patagonia’s sixth well was punched down to 488 metres last month and intersected a hefty 180m of porous, brine-hosting sands – exactly the kind of geology that has turned Argentina into a lithium brine powerhouse.
The company says strong flow rates from packer testing, a high specific gravity, and off-the-charts conductivity readings all point to high lithium content, with punters leaning forward in their seats.
Nine brine samples are now sitting in labs awaiting assays, alongside core samples being tested for porosity and yield.
Importantly, the latest well ties in neatly with earlier drilling, helping the company stitch together a more confident geological model ahead of that next upgrade.
Patagonia is already sitting on a resource of 551,000 tonnes of lithium carbonate equivalent. However, the February results have clearly lifted expectations that a move into higher-confidence “indicated” territory – and potentially a larger overall resource – may not be far away.
Lithium prices have found their feet again after last year’s bruising sell-off. The bounce has breathed life back into a sector that looked down for the count. Argentina’s brine projects, with their typically lower operating costs and scalable potential, are once again back in vogue.
Having already lit the fuse back in January on a strategic funding deal, Patagonia now finds itself running again – this time on the promise that its brines might soon translate into a bigger, better, perhaps even world-class resource.
Is your ASX-listed company doing something interesting? Contact: matt.birney@wanews.com.au
By Andrew Todd
