What a wild ride in markets this week.
Following Trump’s latest TACO (Trump always chickens out) over the weekend, the market basically spent four days further unwinding the lofty market capped AI majors, on building fears of inflation and deepening concerns of an escalating war in the Middle East. But then it was a case of whiplash Friday, led as always by US markets after Microsoft jump a half-trillion-dollars in valuation, the largest single day gain by any company in history.
The ultimate bait and switch came as tech stocks spent much of the month getting belted, with mega market cappers like Nvidia caught up in the semiconductor sell-off, down more than 6 per cent just this week.
Big tech and its big expectations are now caught between potential future revenues vs the capex/energy costs of its data centre developments.
But, those worries were squashed on Friday as Microsoft arrived with a 43 per cent surge in its Azure cloud unit revenue and promptly bowing a hole through every bear argument going. Shares in Microsoft rocketed more than 16 per cent, adding almost US$450 billion (A$640 billion) to its market value in a single session, the biggest one-day gain by any company in market history.
The rally dragged the Nasdaq up 2.8 per cent and sent semiconductor stocks flying, with battlers like Micron gaining 18 per cent, putting the AI bleed on hold - at least for a day or two.
Thanks to missiles still flying over the Strait of Hormuz, oil remained as volatile as it has been since the fracas with Iran kicked off. Those market conditions look to have been the principle reason the US Federal Reserve left rates on hold with inflation concerns very much front and centre. That's not exactly the backdrop you want when the world's most expensive and energy hungry technology stocks are being priced on growth rates a decade into the future.
Amazingly back in Australia, the ASX finally got some inflation relief. Annual CPI eased to 3.8 per cent in June – but try explaining that to Aussie households. So yes, inflation is moving in the right direction, but not nearly fast enough for anyone to start flirting with the words rate cut, especially not with a buzzword “energy security” lurking in the shadows of the US-Iran war.
The Australian Government amazingly opened its eyes to its recent oil woes this week, proposing a WA oil refinery to be added to the energy security mix. The petrol refinery would be Australia’s third, adding to existing facilities in Brisbane and Geelong, and the first domestic refinery to be constructed since the 1960s.
Meanwhile, the strange safe haven in copper is becoming an increasingly important profit engine for our mining majors. Rio Tinto delivered a 43 per cent jump in first-half underlying earnings, sending it and BHP up more than 2 per cent a piece on Friday, to start out a promising reporting season.
Higher copper prices don't just make existing mines more profitable - they are completely changing the economics of projects that were previously parked in the far too-hard basket, creating a rather tasty takeover landscape.
The big miners don't necessarily need another billion-dollar greenfield megaproject. They can buy established brownfield assets in Tier-1 jurisdictions and plug them into existing infrastructure to potentially bring production online far faster and cheaper.
Of course, not every major miner had a perfect week. Fortescue had to flag an approximately US$750 million (A$1.07 billion) pre-tax impairment on its troubled Iron Bridge magnetite operation.
Our Runners were once again few and far between this week. So dire is the small caps volumes that our top spot was taken out by a bounce back candidate after a rough couple of months, as hundreds of millions was splurged on some Aussie copper juniors, who are beginning to pop their heads up.
H2G LIMITED (ASX: H2G)
Up 133% (0.6c – 1.4c)
Taking out Bulls N' Bears Runner of the Week is renewable energy storage solutions group H2G Limited.
There was no news on the week for the renewable tech maestro, however, the company was handed a speeding ticket from market overlords down at the ASX on Wednesday after its share price curiously doubled, increasing from 0.7 cents to 1.4c on no announcements.
In response, H2G said it was unaware of any foul play, instead noting a rather hefty material shareholder had been selling down its position over the past few months.
A big shareholder holding down the sell button for some time can quash any hopes of making a penny and it seems the one-way share price traffic may have finally let up.
With the big seller now out of the way, the company cheekily noted the current share price is still below levels it was trading at just a couple of months ago.
H2G bills itself as one of Australia's leading innovators in the delivery of engineering solutions for renewable energy. In its last quarterly report, H2G mentioned the launch of the H2G PowerSafe Sodium-Ion Battery Range.
The H2G PowerSafe Sodium-Ion Battery range is designed for residential, commercial, industrial and utility applications.
Engineered specifically for Australian conditions, the company says its batteries provide a safe, affordable, long-life and sustainable energy storage.
H2G says it is in discussion with large-scale industrial users for its sodium-ion batteries, particularly where safety is the prime goal, giving investors a glimpse of the commercialisation pathway ahead now that the seller-induced handbrake appears to be off.
CARNABY RESOURCES LTD (ASX: CNB)
Up 66% (48c – 79.5c)
Snagging silver this week is junior copper developer Carnaby Resources, after Evolution Mining swooped in to scoop up the company in a takeover deal that could put its Greater Duchess copper project into production.
Under the proposed scheme, Carnaby shareholders were offered 0.0682 Evolution shares for every Carnaby share, valuing the deal at around 77 cents a share based on Evolution's $11.29 closing price.
The 77c represents a serious premium for Carnaby and its board has unanimously backed the transaction, in the absence of a superior proposal.
The attraction is obvious. Carnaby's Greater Duchess copper-gold project hosts a 29 million tonne resource grading 1.5 per cent copper equivalent for 441,000 tonnes of contained copper equivalent, sitting in the heart of Queensland's historic Cloncurry copper district.
Carnaby had been progressing a feasibility study based around toll-treating its ore through Glencore's processing infrastructure. Evolution has a much simpler trick up its sleeve: process the ore through its nearby Ernest Henry operation, dumping the need for the Glencore tolling and offtake arrangements and potentially turning a stranded development into a low-capex copper opportunity.
Evolution's move is a textbook example of the brownfield takeover wave gathering pace across the resources sector. Yesterday's uneconomic deposit in a Tier-1 mining district, becomes tomorrow's money churner.
When copper prices rise to the current all-time high prices, the strategic acquisitions come thick and fast, with players like Evolution betting the copper sentiment with AI is a long-term play and here to stay.
AMERICAN TUNGSTEN & ANTIMONY LTD (ASX: AT4)
Up 64% (3.3c – 5.4c)
Rounding out our Runners is US critical minerals dynamo American Tungsten & Antimony, which is rapidly moving beyond the explorer bucket after striking a deal to acquire the Del Sol hydrometallurgical antimony refinery in Nevada and the producing White Spar mine feeding it.
The company says its refinery is currently permitted to process up to 18,500 tonnes of feed a year, but American Tungsten isn't mucking around targeting approvals to ramp that capacity towards 100,000 tonnes annually while also adding tungsten refining to the fold.
The deal slots neatly into the company's growing US critical minerals arsenal, alongside its flagship Antimony Canyon project in Utah and Dutch Mountain, which boasts historic tungsten and antimony workings and a fully permitted processing facility.
But the real prize here is vertical integration. Rather than simply digging critical minerals out of the ground and shipping concentrate elsewhere, American Tungsten is assembling the pieces to mine, process and produce higher-value antimony and tungsten products on US soil.
That could prove particularly valuable as China tightens its grip on critical mineral supply chains. Both antimony and tungsten have seen ten-fold price increases over the previous five years and are some of the hottest commodities on the US governments radar for domestic production.
Owning the mine, the refinery and the processing pathway domestically gives American Tungsten something most juniors can only dream about - a genuine mine-to-metal strategy inside the United States.
Is your ASX-listed company doing something interesting? Contact: matt.birney@businessnews.com.au
By Andrew Todd
