It really felt like markets were back this week – for a few days anyway.
Tempers looked to be cooling in the Middle East – at least until Thursday morning local time - ChatGPT parent company OpenAI raised US$122 billion and gold was once again flying.
The ASX was humming, up around 4 per cent for the week in a market rally, despite continuing fuel shortages gripping the nation, with Australia holding less than a month's worth of petrol, diesel and jet fuel.
The bulls were stirring on the possibility of an exit ramp from the Iran conflict that has been choking global oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz. US President Trump had indicated there would be a winding down of operations within weeks, lighting a fire under punters.
But then came Thursday's prime-time address from the White House. Traders walked in hopeful of a ceasefire, but what they got instead was a stark update and some colourful, if not alarming rhetoric from the commander-in-chief.
Trump said the US would spend the next two to three weeks continuing to bomb the country "back to the stone age" and the ASX took a nose-dive, giving up 1.5 per cent almost instantly.
The impact of further, extended disruptions to fuel supply is in clear focus. Two to three weeks is fine when your government plans ahead and sticks to the global 90-day fuel reserve rule, but as the bowsers dry up across Australia, farmers are battling to get feed and rural operations are on a knife’s edge.
But it really shouldn’t take the crisis of a country running out of fuel to realise we need domestic energy supply?
Germany recently destroyed its nuclear power plants on flailing green sentiment and voting preferences, only to swing back the opposite way, simultaneously going heavy on Russian gas effectively funding two sides of the same war.
When the Ukraine war broke out, Germany found itself energy strapped before being forced to fire up its coal plants again which are now burning harder than ever.
While Australia could be one of the best-suited nations for wind and solar – the little brothers to the almighty renewable hydro - because we didn’t commission tens of nuclear power plants a decade ago, it was always obvious we would never make up all of our energy needs with renewables.
And what happens when a country doesn’t plan its energy well enough… Well, you could end up funding two sides of a war like the Germans, or you could potentially end up crippling a continent, destroying Australia’s farming industry and creating food shortages nationwide.
So it’s hardly surprising that our Runners of the week are all about energy and what happens to the world when even the smallest interruptions can threaten livelihoods globally. Except for our first runner, which is an old-school African arbitration dispute. Mining in Africa is not for the faint of heart.
CASSIUS MINING LTD (ASX: CMD)
Up 104% (2.4c – 4.9c)
This week’s Bulls N’ Bears Runner of the Week is gold explorer Cassius Mining, which more than doubled as it continues its high-stakes international arbitration against the Government of Ghana.
The company filed a legal dispute over Cassius' claim that Ghana unlawfully refused to renew its gold prospecting licence in the Talensi District and handed it to the Chinese who originally exploited it.
Cassius is arguing that the decision stripped it of the entire gold project and the future gold riches that could have come from it.
That claim for lost profits has now been independently assessed by two expert firms at a jaw-dropping $1.32 billion.
The increase from a previous $443 million claim back in 2024 is largely due to the recent rise in the gold price, which makes the hypothetical future cash flows from the mine all the more valuable.
Against Cassius' current market cap of around $23.6 million, the damages claim is an extraordinary figure, sitting at around 55 to 80 times its current market value.
But the story runs much deeper and far more tragic than an unfair loss of claim. The arbitration follows a “Blood Gold” allegations by Cassius that its neighbouring Chinese-state-linked mining company in Ghana had allegedly dug hundreds of metres underground tunnels into Cassius’ concession, plundering tens of millions of dollars in gold from its veins.
The investigation alleged that the Ghanaian government continued to support the Chinese-linked company despite multiple claims of human rights abuses and environmental destruction, while shutting down Cassius' operations.
For Cassius, a win in the international tribunal could deliver a company-making outcome as the market starts to towards that possibility.
CAULDRON ENERGY LTD (ASX: CXU)
Up 75% (2.4c – 4.2c)
Second on the week is the curious case of uranium hopeful Cauldron Energy.
While nuclear always thrives during times of energy constraints, the reason this uranium developer ran this week is a little more baffling.
On Tuesday afternoon, some unknown heavy hitter – or was it hitters - with very deep pockets decided they wanted to scoop up some of Cauldron’s shares. An enormous bid for $1.25 million worth of stock, and another for almost $2m appeared at the close, sending the shares on a run and attracting a "please explain" from the ASX fun police.
Maybe it was a prospective cornerstone investor, maybe just a heavy hitter, or perhaps even a nefarious takeover was taking shape… Who knows?
Cauldron’s management quipped back to the ASX questioning, citing a number of factors that could explain the trading.
It pointed to heightened global focus on energy security, which has put a rocket under the entire uranium sector. It also noted that a number of its ASX-listed peers, including Paladin Energy, Boss Energy and Bannerman Energy, had all experienced notable intra-day gains, indicating a sector-wide trend.
Adding to the intrigue, Cauldron’s CEO, Jonathan Fisher, has just returned from a visit with Navoiyuran, Uzbekistan's national uranium company, as part of an ongoing memorandum of understanding.
Whatever the reason, those two bids that’s materialised late in the trading session are not exactly small change for a junior explorer, and the bids were more than enough to get the market talking.
JANUS ELECTRIC HOLDINGS (ASX: JNS)
Up 50% (15c – 22.5c)
Taking home bronze is Janus Electric, a company whose story is particularly topical as Australia grapples with a fuel crisis.
While there was no news out this week, Janus has been running on the back of its unique business model: converting diesel trucks to electric power using its proprietary modular, swappable battery systems made in Australia.
With diesel prices soaring and supply chains under pressure, an increasing number of trucking companies have been reaching out to Janus about converting their fleets.
The company has been building momentum for obvious reasons.
Last week, it announced the appointment of Ton van Hoof as its new CFO, a man who previously served as Deputy CEO of A2B Australia, where he played a central role in delivering material improvements in profitability and cash flow.
Earlier in the month, Janus also secured a binding R&D finance facility, providing it with approximately $1.7 million in additional working capital to support the development and commercialisation of its zero-emission transport technologies.
It would be great to have a bunch of long-range electric trucks on the road right now, but it highlights another national problem: we don't have enough power to support their charging, as a fleet of electric trucks can be decidedly draining on our already-strained power grids.
OMEGA OIL AND GAS LTD (ASX: OMA)
Up 44% (59c – 85c)
In what’s becoming a theme this week, our final runner, Omega Oil and Gas, also moved on no fresh news. But like Janus, its run is all about the bigger picture.
The company is focused on appraising a large, emerging Permian unconventional oil and gas play on the eastern flank of the Taroom Trough in Queensland. The push to develop oil from this region has intensified as the Middle East conflict exposes Australia's oversized dependence on imported fuels.
Earlier this month, Omega announced it had executed a binding contract for a high-specification drilling rig to support its extensive 2026-27 appraisal program. The drive is to commercialise the unconventional resource, which sits about three kilometres below the surface, and address Australia’s growing anxiety over fuel supply security.
Critically, oil from the Taroom Trough is thought to be similar to that from the Moonie field, the very field that one of Australia’s two remaining refineries, Ampol's Brisbane refinery was originally designed to process. This means a successful development could help revive Australia’s dwindling domestic refining capacity. MST Marquee analyst Saul Kavonic has said the Taroom Trough has the potential to provide up to one-quarter of Australia's fuel needs.
Backed by billionaire Brian Flannery and exploration powerhouse Tri-Star Energy, with majors like Shell and Beach Energy also active in the region, Omega is in the right place at the right time.
As the nation wakes up to its energy vulnerability, developing our own oil resources is looking like plain old common sense.
Is your ASX-listed company doing something interesting? Contact: matt.birney@businessnews.com.au
By Andrew Todd
