Did somebody say Santa rally?
As its head regulator, it seems US Fed chairman Jerome Powell has decided if he’s going out, he’s going out with a bang, locking in a rate cut on his way out the door to ensure a Christmas bull run for the masses.
Interestingly, a distinctly divided Federal Reserve decided on an interest rate cut despite signalling that inflation remains. It also signalled it may leave rates unchanged for the foreseeable future, as tariff-induced inflation continues to muddy the waters.
As the man in charge of the supposedly “independent” money-printing machine, Mr Powell has been under severe pressure from his commander-in-chief, President Donald Trump.
It would seem Mr Powell knows he may only have six months until the axe falls and has begrudgingly buckled to Mr Trump’s will by locking in lower rates.
The Fed statements, which are often autopsied word-by-word with obsessive intensity, were a little less clear-cut. Seven members of the board are pushing for no more cuts in 2026, while the other eight reckon they want two.
As a result of notable indecisiveness and the money-printing machine going brrr, the safe-haven precious metals prices ended the week by going silly.
Gold jacked up above A$6400 an ounce while the people’s precious metal – silver - cracked fresh all-time highs and spent the week flirting with the magical A$100 an ounce mark.
Dr Copper - never one to miss a bull market - continued its relentless march north, kissing a fresh A$18,000 per tonne high on lingering supply worries going into the new year.
Meanwhile, in Asian markets, China’s answer to Nvidia and wearer of the crown for “most oversubscribed IPO in human history” – shot up 700 per cent in its first week on the Shanghai bourse after the public offering was oversubscribed by a lazy $6.3 trillion in bookings.
The move is a not-so-subtle reminder that China is rapidly building its own Silicon Valley - this time minus the Patagonia vests and ping-pong tables.
Back home, our Runners cavalcade has a distinct resources flavour, as iron ore – north of US$100 per tonne – and copper caused a breakout for the mining majors. And the small-cap players have decided to follow suit.
A solid mix of oil and gas, high-grade gold, copper and iron ore filled out our list as a welcome reminder of what really makes the ASX rip.
BASS OIL LTD (ASX: BAS)
Up 174 % (3.4c – 9.3c)
The Bulls N’ Bears Runner of the Week is Aussie oil producer Bass Oil Limited, which took off on Monday after it inked a binding gas sales agreement with Origin Energy for 100 per cent of the gas from its soon-to-be-acquired Vanessa gas field in the Cooper Basin.
The three-year deal locks in up to 12.05 petajoules – around 2 million barrels of oil - starting next year, with first gas slated for the moment Bass closes the acquisition and flips the switch on its mothballed facilities.
Origin remains one of only a handful of grown-ups still allowed to wholesale gas in this somehow energy-poor country and will take every molecule Vanessa can produce to supply low-cost, low-risk gas to a ridiculous East Coast market.
Vanessa was drilled back in 2007 and came online in 2018, flowing 3.5 million standard cubic feet per day, pumping out 1.1 billion cubic feet (Bcf) in two short years before the previous owner parked it.
The existing infrastructure comes with a 5-kilometre pipeline already hooked into the Cooper trunk line, so it’s basically plug-and-play once the paperwork lands.
Shares flew off the shelf on Monday, ripping higher from a previous close of 3.4c to a 12-month peak of 9.3c on more than 45 million traded shares.
With a market cap still south of $20 million, the company now has a hard revenue bridge into one of the tightest gas markets on the planet.
MARMOTA LTD (ASX: MEU)
Up 111 % (7.1c – 15c)
Snatching silver this week was Gawler Craton poster-child Marmota Limited, which was set alight on Thursday when final assays from maiden drilling at Greenewood confirmed the deposit as a “spectacular gold discovery”.
Standouts hits included an eye-watering 33m intercept running a hefty 10 grams per tonne (g/t) gold from 22m, containing a 1m split at a bonanza 109g/t gold. Another section of 22m ran at 5.1g/t gold from 49m, with a total of 28 drilling splits higher than 10g/t gold, all within the top 67m from surface.
The labs had to re-run half the samples because the grades were spiking past standard detection limits – the kind of problem every junior wants to have.
The high-grade envelope now stretches more than 900m of strike and is hosted in a flat-lying, near-surface deposit that looks like it could be embarrassingly cheap to dig up.
Marmota has already fired up stage two drilling, with another 85 holes slated for 8500m, as it chews up the ground in hopes of a swift maiden resource by mid next year.
Greenewood is fast becoming the jewel in Marmota’s self-styled “Arc of Gold” that runs from its Aurora Tank deposit in the east through to the company’s Golf Bore, Campfire Bore, Mainwood, Monsoon and Typhoon prospects to the west.
The company is fast becoming the Gawler gold revival story and is now well and truly on people’s radars, with its gold deposits surrounding the historic 1.2-million-ounce Challenger mine up the road.
Shares rocketed to a high of 15c, closing the week on massive $15 million in volume as its market cap pushed through to around $150 million.
If Marmota keeps hitting paydirt like this, the upcoming scoping study could boast some very attractive numbers at the front of it, particularly if its low-cost heap leach ambitions come to fruition.
ALVO MINERALS LTD (ASX: ALV)
Up 81 % (5.2c – 9.4c)
Back for its second podium appearance in as many months is Brazilian base metal hunter Alvo Minerals, which just refuses to stop hitting massive sulphides at the company’s newest Touro target within its Palma project in central Brazil.
The company has now reported thick massive and semi-massive sulphides from all five diamond holes at the prospect.
Alvo says its discovery has now stretched to 750m of strike and the system is still growing south with every hole.
The latest two holes released on Wednesday reported the thickest and strongest massive sulphide intercepts yet, with the rig now stepping out to chase the deeper electromagnetic plates that could plunge the mineralisation to 750m below surface.
For reference, Alvo’s existing resource at Palma sits at 7.6 million tonnes of 2 per cent copper equivalent - an inventory that could quickly be dwarfed by the deposit emerging at Touro.
Assays from the first hole, which returned 13.1m of chalcopyrite-rich massive sulphide from 51m, are still a few weeks off. However, the core visuals have already done the heavy lifting, with shares surging 81 per cent to 9.4c by Friday, from a close of 5.2c last week.
If the deeper conductors light up, Alvo could be sitting on a genuine company-maker in a white-hot copper market starving for red metal supply.
ALCHEMY RESOURCES LTD (ASX: ALY)
Up 67 % (0.9c – 1.5c)
Rounding out the Runners with a proper old-school iron ore moonshot is Bryah Basin dark horse Alchemy Resources, which dropped first-pass reverse circulation (RC) assays from the Southern Ridge target at its Valley Bore project in Western Australia.
Standout hits from the company’s shallow 15-hole, 1000m program included a healthy 20m hit running an impressive 62.9 per cent iron from 14m, plus a deeper 35m section running 60.1 per cent iron from 64m.
The company says that at those grades, its hematite would qualify for the kind of direct-shipping ore that makes Chinese steel mills drool.
The program tested beneath outcropping ridgelines of massive hematite on Alchemy’s already granted mining lease, with zero heritage issues, sealed-road access to Great Northern Highway and a straight shot to either Geraldton or Port Hedland.
Assays from the final six holes are expected in mid-December.
With iron ore holding above the magic US$100 a tonne mark, the market lapped up the results, sending its share price catapulting higher from 0.9c last week to a peak of 1.5c for the week.
The real kicker is a heads-of-agreement with private iron ore producer Newcam Minerals for $250,000 in cash and shares up front, plus an additional $500,000 option fee. If Newcam exercises its option, the company must pay a further $500,000 for 60 per cent, while Alchemy is free-carried to a decision-to-mine.
Newcam already mines nearby at Mt Gould and has its own port allocation at Geraldton – basically the perfect dance partner for a junior with high-grade direct shipping ore on a granted lease.
Alchemy is still waiting on plenty of assays to hold the line, hinting that this micro-cap and its granted mining lease could quickly see its cheap tonnes turn to cash in the flourishing Mid West iron market.
Is your ASX-listed company doing something interesting? Contact: matt.birney@businessnews.com.au
By Andrew Todd
