Its not even Australia Day and 2026 has already delivered huge political shake-ups to an already tense global geopolitical environment.
The big movements in world politics appear to have finally made it to Australia’s shores as the Coalition looks to finally split down the middle, perhaps this time for good.
For the first time in nearly 40 years, Nationals’ leader David Littleproud announced a very public break-up following the Liberals' backing of Prime Minister Anthony Albanese’s new hate speech laws. The Nationals claim the laws were rushed in as a knee-jerk fix to the December Bondi Beach terrorist attacks and declared the Coalition as “untenable” moving forward.
These break-ups are historically short-lived; however, recent polling showing One Nation screaming into second place on a party-preferred basis threatens to shake the fabric of a long-established two-party Australian system.
World leaders have descended on the Swiss town of Davos for what was billed as a decidedly less back-slappy World Economic Forum (WEF) this year - no endless panels on saving the planet with virtue-signalling, but real talk about AI dominance, selective alliances and quietly ditching green energy.
Yet, inevitably, US President Donald Trump stole the spotlight as his Greenland saga follows him everywhere.
The Don also unveiled an executive order for the US aimed at stopping large institutional investors from scooping up single-family homes, which drive up housing prices. The investor loophole allows corporations to claim depreciation on family homes that families otherwise could not, potentially leading America into a corporate rental empire.
Meanwhile, geopolitical tremors keep rumbling. Threats of fresh war in Iran and a visibly weakening US dollar have created the perfect storm for precious metals.
Gold is flirting with that magical US$5000 an ounce mark (around A$7300), on track to effectively double in price in little over a year.
Our Runners this week carry a distinctly geopolitical flavour, dominated by gold plays and critical minerals names. The ASX is once again paying rapt attention, with juniors and producers alike catching the tailwind from this macro madness. No green dreams here - just hard assets in a world that's rediscovering their value the old-fashioned way.
AUSTRALIAN STRATEGIC MATERIALS LTD (ASX: ASM)
Up 164% (71.5c – 188.5c)
The Bulls N’ Bears Runner of the Week is critical minerals player Australian Strategic Materials (ASM), after copping a $450 million takeover bid from NYSE-listed heavyweight Energy Fuels Inc.
Under the scheme, ASM shareholders would receive 0.053 Energy Fuels shares for each ASM share, valuing ASM shares at $1.90 each. The deal also comes with an unfranked 13c special dividend.
The ASM board has flagged its support, including non-executive chair Ian Gandel, who holds about 13.6 per cent of the register.
Energy Fuels is a Denver-based, dual-listed critical minerals group with exposure across uranium, rare earths and heavy mineral sands. The deal stitches together a near-term, Western-aligned “mine-to-metal and alloy” supply chains, spanning both light and heavy rare earths.
Being US-based, Energy Fuels is well placed to tap a growing suite of government funding and incentives, with the tie-up neatly aligned to the US–Australia Critical Minerals Framework.
Several materials caught up in China’s recent export curbs are already available, or planned, via ASM’s alternative supply chain from its Dubbo project in New South Wales.
ASM has been assessing lower-capex, faster-to-market options to recover light neodymium-praseodymium and heavy dysprosium-terbium rare earths from Dubbo, which could be easily funded now thanks to giant US government grants.
The company says the project is ready to roll, with major approvals in hand and an estimated 75.18 million tonnes of a resource containing heavy rare earths, zirconium, niobium and hafnium.
OSTEOPORE LTD (ASX: OSX)
Up 150% (1.2c – 3c)
Sneaking into Runners for the second consecutive week and taking out silver is Osteopore Limited, which has struck yet another deal for its bone growth technology, this time in Hong Kong.
The company says its fast-growing orthopaedics arm is heading into Hong Kong, after inking a new distribution deal with local outfit MontsMed, giving it another notch in its broader Asia-Pacific expansion plan.
Initially, Osteopore plans to focus on orthopaedic trauma reconstruction, which it believes offers the most immediate and practical use case for its devices.
Under the exclusive agreement, MontsMed will be appointed Osteopore’s Hong Kong distributor for orthopaedic products under a three-year term.
At the heart of the story is Osteopore’s medical tech: 3D-printed, bioresorbable implants that act as scaffolds for natural bone regrowth. The implants gradually dissolve post-surgery, leaving healthy bone behind instead of permanent hardware.
The company says the ongoing distribution deals will help it access China’s immense dental bone graft and membrane market, which is already valued at north of US$200 million and is tipped for continued strong growth this decade.
Once again, Osteopore appears to have neatly dodged many of the usual regulatory and market-entry hurdles by partnering with established local players as its Asian saturation story accelerates at a rate of knots.
OLYMPIO METALS LTD (ASX: OLY)
Up 124% (5.8c – 13c)
Taking home Bulls N’ Bears bronze is high-grade gold story, Olympio Metals, which delivered a set of more than 100 significant gold intercepts at its Bousquet gold project along the legendary Cadillac Break in Canada.
The standout numbers from the drilling included 6.4 metres at 6.54 grams per tonne (g/t) gold from 183 metres, 7.9m at 6.2g/t from 138 metres and a 1.5m hit running a whopping 54.2g/t from 235.5 metres at its Paquin prospect.
A market with a lust for gold gobbled up the news, pushing Olympio’s shares up as much as 124 per cent on Tuesday to 13 cents on massive turnover of 64 million shares – its busiest day in more than a year.
The Cadillac Break is a major regional-scale fault structure in North America, more than 300km long, famous for hosting a myriad of massive gold deposits, comprising a total historical resource of more than 110 million ounces.
Bousquet commands a 10-kilometre stretch of the Cadillac Break just 15km west of the Bousquet Mining Camp, where heavyweights such as Agnico Eagle’s 15-million-ounce La Ronde and Iamgold’s 2.4-million-ounce Westwood reside.
It wouldn’t take too many significant hits in that part of the world for Olympio to truly set the gold market alight.
RIVERSGOLD LTD (ASX: RGL)
Up 109% (1.1c – 2.3c)
Rounding out our Runners this week is near-term gold producer Riversgold Limited, which unveiled shallow high-grade gold hits from its Kalgoorlie project, accompanied by a recent strategic $2.15 million capital raising at 1 cent per share.
The company struck high-grade gold in 21 holes at its Northern Zone gold development in Western Australia. Drilling intersected the mineralised host porphyry across the north-east, west and east zones, expanding the footprint and lending further weight to the company’s broader gold model.
Best intercepts included 8m at 5.81g/t gold from 46m, 7m at 3.48g/t from 48m and 5m at 3.13g/t from 41m. Riversgold says modelling points to a 600m-wide zone of shallow oxide mineralisation sitting above the Northern Zone porphyry system.
The good news kept coming. Kalgoorlie development partner MEGA Resources will tip in $1 million via a placement for 100 million shares.
Under an agreement signed in September, MEGA will fund the project and provide geological, engineering, project management, mining and haulage services, with profits split 50:50.
MEGA will also recycle 10 per cent of its monthly proceeds into expansion-grade control and step-out drilling. Riversgold says it will continue refining its understanding of the Kalgoorlie project ahead of a maiden resource estimate, with MEGA already factoring the latest data into mine planning for a first-half 2026 start.
Is your ASX-listed company doing something interesting? Contact: matt.birney@businessnews.com.au
By Andrew Todd
