Having played pandemic politics expertly, Mark McGowan will be under pressure to consider changes to the border policy as the festive season nears.
As both sides of politics bicker over Western Australia’s economic performance, COVID-19 continues to cover the state like a dark cloud, and provides the opposition with hopes of a political comeback.
Premier Mark McGowan and Treasurer Ben Wyatt have regularly praised the resilience of the WA economy.
In fact Mr Wyatt talked up the performance of the economy in his recent budget speech (as expected).
While noting growth had contracted in the June quarter, he said: “Business and consumer confidence …. have rebounded to pre-COVID levels,” adding that “leading indicators of employment, such as job advertisements and payroll data, suggest continued improvement.”
Business confidence is a fragile commodity, especially right now.
The job of government is to support business; the private sector is where the wealth and jobs are created.
The opposition must tread warily here.
While the government will gild the lily when it comes to the economy, especially as the election gets closer, Liberal leader Liza Harvey knows that to challenge the validity of the government’s spin too vigorously could rebound.
Take the recent CommSec ‘State of the States’ report for the September quarter, which had something for both sides.
After assessing the states against eight key indicators such as economic growth, retail spending, and dwelling commencements compared with performance over the past 10 years, WA came in joint sixth, its highest ranking since April 2016.
That’s encouraging but, on the face of it, nothing to write home about.
Neither was it consistent with WA being the economic powerhouse of the nation, although we know resources sector royalties and taxes are propping up federal and state revenues and the balance of payments, thanks to massive exports and strong prices.
But there was unequivocal good news when more recent changes were compared.
“On the eight indicators assessed, Western Australia tops the annual changes on three measures,” the report said.
“Economic momentum is on its side.”
That’s the sort of news a government likes to hear at this stage in the political cycle.
Despite the premier’s stellar approval ratings and support for WA’s hard border with other states, it’s not all plain sailing thanks to COVID-19, which has thrown the pre-election year into chaos and still has the capacity to pack a political punch.
The elephant in the room is the national cabinet’s recent agreement in principle for every state and territory – except WA – to open their borders and economies by Christmas.
And its significance has been highlighted by Victorian Labor Premier Daniel Andrews agreeing to some relaxation of the stringent conditions imposed to rein-in the spread of the virus in his state.
To the north, don’t be surprised if there is further relaxation in Queensland after its state election on October 31, regardless of which side wins.
This means that, providing there is no new virus flare-up, residents in the rest of the country will be able to move around far more freely, including travelling interstate.
It must be said that Mr McGowan has played the politics associated with the virus brilliantly.
Imposing the hard interstate border has meant that Western Australians were able to return to a more normal lifestyle much faster than elsewhere.
Internal tourism, among other things, has been a winner.
However, there must be a point where people’s patience starts to run out.
In fact there are already signs this is occurring, with Mr McGowan’s approval rating coming off its initial stratospheric levels.
Prime Minister Scott Morrison will no doubt single out WA for its intransigence as restrictions in other states are eased and the capacity for traditional family reunions at Christmas improves.
Suggestions that this might stoke the fires of secession are ludicrous.
There has always been a secession element in WA and, given the state’s isolation, that’s understandable.
But the influx from interstate and overseas since the iron ore boom in the 1960s has resulted in a bigger proportion of the population with interstate and overseas family links.
And Christmas-New Year reunions are part of family life.
Mr McGowan knows he must play this issue carefully.
A false move will give Ms Harvey renewed hope when the March poll rolls around.
