Anthony Albanese’s Labor have just a three per cent chance of forming a majority government, according to new polls which surveyed more than 40,000 Australians.
YouGov’s first Federal election poll for 2025, which compiled data from 40,689 interviews, projected the Coalition would win 73 of 150 seats in the house of Representatives, leaving it two seats short of a majority.
The projection pointed to Labor winning 66 seats, Independents picking up eight, and the Greens, KAP and Centre Alliance all with one seat.
It would make the current Labor government the first single-term government in 94 years.
Central to the projections was Labor losing 12 traditionally safe seats in working class areas to the Coalition.
The New South Wales coalmining seat of Hunter, which Labor has held since 1910, was one of such seats, as well as the neighbouring Shortland and Paterson.
In WA, Labor was projected to lose Tangey, with a 5.3 per cent swing to the Coalition, and the newly minted seat of Bullwinkel, with a swing of 4.1 per cent to the Coalition.
Despite the promising polls in traditionally Labor-held seats, the Coalition is projected to win none of the seats taken by Independents at the last election, including the WA seat of Curtin, where incumbent Kate Chaney is projected to return with 29.4 per cent of the primary vote.
The two-party preferred vote showed a 3.2 per cent swing to the Coalition compared to the 2022 result at a nation-wide level, with Labor on 48.9 per cent and the Coalition on 51.1 per cent.
It gave Labor a three per cent probability of forming a majority government, versus the Coalition’s 19 per cent chance of a majority.
According to the data, there was a 78 per cent chance of a hung parliament.
