AFTER a brief respite, employers can expect to face severe labour shortages again as economic growth quickly soaks up whatever genuine unemployment there is.
AFTER a brief respite, employers can expect to face severe labour shortages again as economic growth quickly soaks up whatever genuine unemployment there is.
Most economists and business observers believe not enough has been done in the short downturn to prepare the workforce for another boom.
In addition, the federal government has reduced the flexibility of workplace laws and, anecdotal evidence suggests, immigration.
Yet the economic conditions are returning to those that prompted the State Training Board to predict the need for around 18,000 new jobs per year between 2006 and 2016 in its 'Beyond the Resources Boom' report, and the Chamber of Commerce and Industry WA to estimate the number of jobs in the state will increase by as many as 400,000 over the same period.
Economic research firm ACIL Tasman believes this high demand for workers will force WA employers to again look offshore for employees.
“The only way that this can be achieved is by large-scale migration from other states and overseas," ACIL Tasman director Ian Satchwell said.
“On past migration performance, and assuming that the economies of the eastern states recover, and that Queensland resumes its strong resources-driven growth as well, this means that the bulk of Western Australia's population requirements will need to be supplied by international migration."
Mr Satchwell believes the WA government will need to create comprehensive workforce and population strategies to guide the state through this difficult period.
His research indicates that just taking a moderate estimate of 2016 population at 2.55 million means WA will require about 224,000 overseas migrants, or more than 60,000 a year - a population the size of Mandurah arriving annually - bringing its own economic and cultural pressures.
“Are the WA and Australian governments prepared for this?" Mr Satchwell asks rhetorically?
“Based on their published policies, the answer appears to be 'no'.
“There are major questions about how we recruit people, process their visa applications, house their families, educate their children and provide health and community services.
“The current lack of an integrated workforce and population strategy on the part of either the WA or Australian governments begs the question of how this will be achieved.
“If governments decide that the construction phase will need to be substantially resourced by temporary fly-in, fly-out labour from outside WA, the requirement for short-term migration will be very high."
While almost every business will cite difficulties in finding staff during the last boom, the general services sector such as hospitality, aged care, retail and community services suffered the most due to the relatively low wages paid in those fields.
Aged-care provider Amana Living CEO Ray Glickman said the previous boom severely hit his sector, which has other issues, such as under-funding and an ageing workforce, to deal with even without strong economic conditions to lure workers away.
The industry, and Amana in particular, have sought to bolster their position by improving conditions for workers wherever possible, something Mr Glickman believes will make it better prepared to compete with the dollars available in the north-west.
In addition, he thinks the volatility of the recent market and the experiences of those who sought higher paid short-term employment will change the perception of boom time employment.
“I think it's once bitten, twice shy," Mr Glickman said.
“The people who went off and enjoyed the boom and then got sacked or retrenched, they are wary of going out and chasing the dollars."
