Set aside the inconvenience of COVID-19 travel restrictions and WA is in good shape.
Border closures due to COVID-19 are delivering a real-life stress test to the belief that Western Australia is reliant on the rest of the nation in order to prosper economically.
To put it another way, if war is the continuation of politics by other means, as Prussian general Carl von Clausewitz said more than 200 years ago, then it could be argued that WA’s raised barriers with the rest of Australia are secession by other means.
Opponents of WA quitting the country and sailing on as an independent entity have always argued that the human and historic ties are too strong, and that the other states provide essential services.
Secessionists, who have never been able to mount a vote-winning argument that WA would be financially stronger if it stood alone, are now watching their case being played out in real time; and so far the evidence is compelling that WA would be able to flourish on its own.
No WA government, current or future, is likely to press the secession button because it would create an internal dispute.
It would also lead to a stoush with the Commonwealth that isn’t necessary, because the COVID-19 trial run is doing the job without a shot being fired or an angry word exchanged.
Barriers at roads, ports and airports have sheltered people in WA from COVID-19 – and that’s a good thing – but they have also proved that the state doesn’t need anything other than dramatically scaled down connections with the rest of the country to succeed.
The latest twist in the secession debate is the banning of natural gas exports to the rest of Australia for no other reason than a claim by Premier Mark McGowan that local industry needs the gas: a move that flies in the face of Section 92 of the Australian Constitution, which specifies that trade between the states must be free.
Mr McGowan might not like the tag but he is emerging as an unexpected champion of secession, taking over a title once held by the far right intellectual and son of a former premier, Hal Colebatch.
But the real test of fortress WA, which is how the state appears to the rest of the world, will be in the economic growth numbers; and it’s in those that WA appears to be shining.
The key, of course, is WA’s world-beating resources sector, where industries such as iron ore, gold, gas, nickel, alumina, titanium sands, lithium and rare earths are riding high on strong demand from the rest of the world.
Other states could copy WA but, for a variety of reasons, have not encouraged one of the few sectors in which Australia has a natural competitive advantage.
Mining and oil might be old-economy industries but they remain highly profitable and will stay that way well into the future, which can’t be said for the deadend into which international tourism, education, and banking have fallen. (All of those are easily replicated in other countries, as has happened with the once-great manufacturing industries of South Australia and Victoria.)
From a human perspective, it is important WA’s borders are opened (preferably soon) in a way that doesn’t allow a large-scale entry of COVID-19 and other unpleasant creatures, in the same way as other countries seem to be achieving with active management of the disease rather than a futile attempt at eradication.
Currently, Phase 5 restrictions are not scheduled for introduction until October 24, and they don’t include removal of the hard border.
Management of COVID-19, however, is not the issue when it comes to secession, or the training run WA is conducting.
What is at issue is the financial proof that the state can function perfectly well with closed borders and bans on the import and export of items such as gas.
Over the next few months, there will be a flow of data to show which parts of Australia have done best during the lockdowns and, in WA’s case, the lockout.
A tight residential rental market is an early pointer to an economy doing well.
Business investment is another test, with WA seemingly outperforming the rest of the country on that score and likely to top the next CommSec State of the States report.
In last month’s comparison of the states, the bank rated Victoria as enjoying the fastest overall economic growth, with WA second.
It is impossible to imagine Victoria still being on top as it endures a second lockdown courtesy of inept government management of quarantined travellers.
What WA’s closed borders are demonstrating is exactly what secessionists of the past 100 years have argued: that WA would be better off without having to prop up the rest of the country (though they have never been able to prove it).
The last time secession was seriously discussed in WA was 1933, at the height of The Great Depression.
It surfaced again in 1974, during another economic downturn, when mining leader Lang Hancock kicked the ball into play, only to have it kicked back.
In the early secession debates, WA was tied much more firmly to the rest of the country than it is now, relying on services provided by companies based in other states.
Most services are available online these days, with internet connectivity another reason WA would be more than able to go it alone.
Zoom, and countless other conferencing programs, are demonstrating daily that WA’s remoteness is no longer the negative factor it once was.
Mr McGowan will hate the idea of filling the shoes of Hal Colebatch, but even if he is a reluctant secessionist he has certainly done more than most people by isolating the state and proving that secession, albeit as a trial run, actually works.
Working away
Working from home, which is part of the experiment in proving that you don’t need to be in a big city like Sydney or Melbourne to do your job, might have a nasty flipside.
The issue was summed up disturbingly in the headline of a report last week in London’s Financial Times newspaper: ‘If you can do your job anywhere, can anyone do your job?’
The essence of the story was that out of sight might also start to mean out of mind to an employer, and that leads naturally to being out of work.
A fund manager working in central London was quoted saying that people who make a choice to not return to the office for fear of contracting COVID-19 might be in for a rude awakening.
But the real surprise was the citing of an example of a software developer who said he was working from home but was actually outsourcing his own job to China, spending his time surfing the web and trading on eBay.
