Jobseekers looking for encouraging news in the Reserve Bank of Australia's latest assessment of the economy will be disappointed.
The same goes for wage-earners.
"Labour market conditions remain subdued," the RBA said in its quarterly statement on monetary policy today.
It was hardly news to anyone, coming the day after the official labour force figures confirmed the longest unbroken rising trend in the unemployment rate since the one generated by the early 1990s recession.
The RBA tried valiantly to see the glass as half full.
"Leading indicators of labour demand have picked up since the beginning of the year and point to modest employment growth over the coming months," it said.
Official jobs figures yesterday showed the trend growth rate in employment as 0.01 per cent a month.
So, any improvement would be welcome.
But "modest" jobs growth is below the "trend" growth that would normally stop unemployment from rising.
Not surprisingly, then, the outlook for unemployment is uninspiring.
"A sustained decline in the unemployment rate is not expected for some time," it said.
What's more, the RBA's own forecasts suggest strongly that unemployment may rise further than the current 11-year high of 6.2 per cent.
"GDP growth is still expected to be below trend until mid-2015, before picking up gradually to be a bit above trend by the end of 2016," it said.
A pickup in GDP growth will boost employment growth.
"Meanwhile, productivity growth is expected to remain a little above its average pace of the past decade," the RBA said.
Faster productivity growth means slower growth in demand for labour.
Against this background, any optimism over the outlook for employment growth in coming months would have looked a little odd.
The other side of rising joblessness is slow wages growth for those with a job.
Wages growth is currently as slow as it has been for well over a decade, with the RBA acknowledging that the jobless rate is "above the level that statistical estimates suggest would be consistent with stable domestic inflationary pressures".
In other words, unemployment is high enough to cause wages growth to slow.
The RBA said wage growth would probably stay low and then pick up "only gradually towards the end of the forecast period".
And, just so no one is burdened by the false hope that decent wage rises are likely in the near future, the RBA's forecast period extends out to the end of 2016.
By AAP
