Watershed year for WA Liberals

Analysis: The Liberal Party of WA is facing the most crucial challenge in its 79-year history.

It must get its leadership, candidates and policies right over the next 12 months or risk a further four years in the political wilderness.

And with a state election just 15 months away, there is no room for complacency within conservative ranks.

One thing is certain: the unprecedented lopsided numbers in the Legislative Assembly – Labor has 53 seats and the Liberals and Nationals just three each – is in nobody’s best interests, not even Labor, which has to grapple with a bloated backbench of competing ambitions.

The Liberals have only themselves to blame for their current dilemma.

Their 2021 election campaign must be a blueprint never to be repeated. Deluded personal ambition, factional feuding over candidate selection, and a policy vacuum all contributed to the outcome, with the party failing to land a glove on Labor led by Mark McGowan at the top of his game amid the afterglow of the state’s COVID response.

The Liberal Party must resolve two pressing issues: wrest the opposition leadership role from the Nationals’ Shane Love, and then decide who will lead it to the 2024 poll.

If, by some miracle, the Liberals and Nationals were to form government next year, it’s the Liberal leader who would be the next premier, as the Liberals would obviously be the dominant party numerically. Logic has it that the leader of the opposition presents as the alternative premier.

This warrants some urgent horse trading between the parties. The Nationals are flirting with the idea of opening metropolitan branches and fielding candidates in city seats. It’s been tried before and failed, so what’s going on?

It’s a giant game of bluff. The Nationals face virtual oblivion under the new upper house state-wide electoral process. So, winnable spots on a joint Liberal-Nationals ticket is an attractive option, provided the Liberals can be convinced. The solution would be for the Nationals to drop plans to contest metropolitan seats for favourable positions on a joint upper house ticket. And the Liberals get the opposition leadership.

That would represent a meteoric rise for Libby Mettam, who deposed David Honey as Liberal leader just 12 months ago and has done a competent job. But the Liberals are expected soon to have another leadership issue to handle: how to cope with high-profile Perth Lord Mayor Basil Zempilas, who is strongly tipped to seek Liberal endorsement for the previously safe seat of Churchlands, now held by Labor first termer Christine Tonkin.

Mr Zempilas’s candidacy would obviously give the Liberal ranks a valuable shot in the arm. His media exposure, both from his television career with Channel 7 and role as lord mayor, would be invaluable. But would he overshadow Ms Mettam? One thing for sure, Labor would seek to exploit any sign of tension between Ms Mettam and Mr Zempilas. That’s politics.

Certainly Labor has been keen to embarrass the lord mayor in recent months, including over the issue of a shelter for victims of domestic violence within the Perth City Council area.

The Liberals also need a strong core of quality local candidates in previously safe seats such as South Perth, Nedlands, Bateman, Riverton and Darling Range. Any whiff of interference from controversial powerbrokers such as MLCs Nick Goiran and Peter Collier would be destructive.

But the anticipated nomination of barrister Hayley Cormann – wife of former powerbroker Mathias Cormann, currently secretary-general of the OECD in Paris – for South Perth is expected to be welcomed on the basis she would be a ‘quality candidate’.

Will Dr Honey seek another term in the prize seat of Cottesloe? Reports indicate there are some well-credentialled endorsement contenders, giving Dr Honey the option to stand down next year when he would be aged 66.

Then there’s the issue of policies. A major failing of the last election campaign, led by political tyro Zak Kirkup, was the absence of a coherent message. Traditional private sector support, especially for small business, was lacking. And an environmental package – designed to attract young voters but which drew hostile comments from the resources sector – was a giant flop.

The party brains trusts apparently forgot that WA is the nation’s most entrepreneurial state. Successful organisations play to their strengths.

But there’s no shortage of issues this time round: a housing shortage and soaring rents, law and order (especially in regional centres ); health and general cost blowouts; and delays in major projects. And the party is promoting extended shopping hours.

With Labor now in power in Canberra, it’s harder for Premier Roger Cook to fob off shortcomings involving federal-state relations.

But the challenge is up to the Liberals. Do they have the political smarts to take it up to a Labor Party seeking an unprecedented third four-year term? The next 12 months will hold the answer.