Population report points to WA growth

POPULATION growth is in the news again with the release of a new report by the Commonwealth Government’s Centre for Population.

According to the 2022 Population Statement, the population of Western Australia is forecast to increase from 2.78 million to 3.23 million people by 2032.

Last year was the first during which a greater net flow of people relocated to WA from interstate than from overseas, with a net population inflow of 10,800 from the rest of Australia in the year to June 2022.

WA relies on a growing population as a source of skilled workers, and as a fundamental driver of the state’s economic growth and prosperity.

And migration flows in WA typically react more strongly to global economic conditions and commodity markets than other states, and specifically to the strength of WA’s resources sector.

Premier Mark McGowan launched his ‘Build a Life in WA’ campaign in 2021 on the back of a summit with industry leaders and peak agencies.

At the time, Mr McGowan highlighted the importance of attracting people from the eastern states to relocate to WA as a key part of his strategy to overcome worker shortages.

But the federal 2022 population report doesn’t expect interstate migration to be a long-term contributor to WA’s population growth.

Projections have net interstate migration into WA falling from 4,200 in 2022-23 to less than 1,000 in 2023-24, and only 650 in 10 years’ time.

The recent Bridging the Gap report from the Bankwest Curtin Economics Centre showed that interstate migration into WA tends to lift as a response to temporary skills shortages, with skilled workers moving into the state historically being sourced mostly from overseas.

The 2022 Population Statement supports this finding.

The largest contributor to WA’s population growth over the next decade is forecast to come from overseas migration, with a projected inflow of more than 23,000 overseas migrants per year into WA over the next decade.

With the relaxation in COVID restrictions, this is why the state’s population strategy has devoted more attention over the past year towards lifting WA’s overseas migration numbers.

Population growth also feeds into the sustainability and economic resilience of WA’s regions. Yet the federal report is less optimistic when it comes to WA’s regional population growth.

Perth’s resident population is forecast to grow by an average of 1.3 per cent annually by the end of the next decade, but the rest of the state by only 0.6 per cent.

And WA’s future population growth invites careful consideration of strategies related to jobs and growth, service provision and infrastructure, in regional areas of the state as well as metropolitan Perth.

This is because the makeup of a growing population has an important bearing on the demand for goods and access to services.

Growth among younger cohorts and families will increase the demand for childcare, school places, tertiary education and job opportunities, as well as the supply of affordable housing.

An older population needs access to healthcare services, residential aged care and retirement living.

The WA government has a lot of work in front of it to ensure that WA is well enough positioned to accommodate nearly 500,000 more people by the end of the decade.

Professor Alan Duncan is director of the Bankwest Curtin Economics Centre