Perth roads to get busier

Traffic volumes in Perth are projected to increase by nearly 41 per cent over the next 15 years, substantially higher than growth in most other Australian cities.

The high growth rate in Perth primarily reflects the state’s population growth and the projected rapid increase in commercial freight volumes.

The projections by the Bureau of Transport and Regional Economics are part of a study into the ‘avoidable’ cost of congestion, which it estimated to be $9.4 billion nationally.

The bureau’s report also indicated that Perth’s stereotype image of being a big car user may be overstated.

Perth residents travel an average 7,580 kilometres by car each year, or about 146 kilometres a week, which is below the national average.

The figures for other cities range from 7,300km per person in Brisbane and 7,470km  in Sydney, up to 8,600km in Melbourne.

People living in rural and regional areas, not surprisingly, tend to travel further each year. Australians outside the eight major cities travel an average 9,420km per year.

The bureau says private road vehicles account for about 90 per cent of the total urban passenger task, up from about 40 per cent in the late 1940s.

Looking ahead, it expects commercial vehicle traffic to grow by around 3.5 per cent per year over the 15 years to 2020, double the growth of private car traffic.

The bureau believes car usage is approaching what it calls ‘saturation point’; historically car usage has increased in response to rising per capita incomes, but the bureau says that will not continue.

“There reaches a point where further increases in per capita income elicit no further demand for car travel per capita,” the bureau’s working paper 71 states.

It believes car usage will, in future, be tied mainly to population growth, with a small boost from rising incomes.

In contrast, it anticipates further real growth in the freight task as the economy expands.

“There are no signs yet of saturation in Australian truck freight use per person (as there are in car travel per person)”, the report says.

“The other influence on the demand for urban freight transport is the real freight rate. Real road freight rates in Australia have fallen dramatically since 1965, mainly driven by the progressive introduction of larger articulated vehicles but also by technological change, which has made possible lighter vehicles, improved terminal efficiencies, etc.”

Of all Australian cities, Brisbane, Perth and Darwin are expected to have the highest overall growth in vehicle traffic (measured by vehicle kilometres travelled) over the 15 years to 2020, due mainly to their higher population growth.