Libs desperate for by-election boost

Mark McGowan’s sudden departure from the political stage has unwittingly provided a ray of hope for the struggling Liberal Party WA to exploit.

But that’s only if they are smart enough.

While Mr McGowan was there the Liberals – and the Nationals, which are the official opposition – struggled to cut through and make an impression on voters.

One reason was the former premier’s high approval rating. This meant voters tended to accept his assurances, even in some areas where his government clearly had problems, such as crowded hospitals, housing shortages and juvenile justice.

Another was the lack of firepower on the opposition benches. There appeared to be no MPs with the capacity to expose government spin on such issues as the delays and massive cost blowout on the flagship Metronet rail project.

But there are signs that things could be about to change, courtesy of the McGowan exit.

The first came immediately after Mr McGowan announced he was going. It was clear there was no succession plan, so the contenders had to move quickly to stake their claims.

Roger Cook, who had been deputy Labor leader since 2008 and deputy premier since 2017, wasted no time presenting his credentials. His faction, the United Workers’ Union, considers itself as the dominant behind-the-scenes manipulator in Labor ranks.

Although he narrowly failed to get the faction’s support – it went to the union’s former assistant secretary and Health Minister Amber-Jade Sanderson – Mr Cook was undeterred and formed a leadership unity ticket with Rita Saffioti that won the day.

Ms Sanderson took the defeat in good grace. But such setbacks inevitably leave scars and lingering suspicions on loyalties, with the potential for retribution down the track.

Another factor is Mr Cook’s minimalist cabinet reshuffle, with only one new face: Balcatta MP David Michael who got the ports, local government and road safety portfolios. This has left many talented, and disappointed, parliamentary secretaries, who believe it’s about time they were given higher duties.

The new premier also indicated that this was the team to take the government through to the 2025 election, adding to the glum looks in the ranks.

Mr Cook had the perfect excuse for refreshing his team. Upper house leader Sue Ellery has already indicated she won’t be seeking a further term. The new premier could have insisted that his UWU faction colleague take a back seat in favour of a more youthful member.

And Attorney-General John Quigley, admittedly an energetic 74, can’t go on for ever. It wasn’t that long ago Labor MPs who turned 65 in their next term had to seek special approval from the party’s state executive to run again.

So where does this leave the Liberals in the by-election contest on Saturday July 29 for Mr McGowan’s former seat of Rockingham?

First, it’s worth acknowledging that the party would need a miracle to win. Mr McGowan gained an extraordinary primary vote in 2021 of 82.7 per cent, and Labor has endorsed Waikiki resident and former electorate officer Magenta Marshall.

Liberal sources indicated their favoured candidate was employment officer Peter Hudson, who cut his teeth in the last federal election in the local seat of Brand. Although he gained only 33 per cent of the two-party preferred vote against Labor’s Madeleine King, now resources minister, the party believes that’s a solid base for a credible campaign in Rockingham.

By-elections can be tricky for the governing party. First there is the absence of the sitting member, who usually has built up a personal vote, often assessed at about 5 per cent. But in Mr McGowan’s case it could be worth 20 per cent or possibly more.

Then there is the preference flow. In a big field, single-issue candidates have the capacity to inflict some damage on the governing party if the issue is divisive enough. And local issues can upset the cart.

The by-election will be a major test for the campaigning skills of both Mr Cook and the Liberal leader Libby Mettam. Mr Cook will aim to contain the size of the inevitable anti-Labor swing, while every extra vote will be a bonus for Ms Mettam.

It might just provide the kick the Liberals so desperately need.