Labour shortage to peak at 84,000

The shortage of workers in the resources and infrastructure sectors will peak at 84,000 in two years’ time, a national report by expert analysts Pit Crew Consulting has found.

Surprisingly, the peak shortage is only slightly worse than the current shortage of 75,000 workers.

Pit Crew managing director Peter Dyball said the market was already starting to self-constrain or self-correct.

In other words, project proponents were starting to cancel or defer investment decisions because of labour shortages and cost inflation.

A notable example was oil and gas producer Santos which recently said it was unable to make a final investment decision on its Dorado project in the current environment.

Wesfarmers and OZ Minerals have both said they are carefully assessing potential projects in light of the current pressures.

Pit Crew's report comes one day ahead of the federal government's jobs summit, whch will explore options to address the national labour shortage.

Six Western Australians will attend the summit - Premier Mark McGowan, Wesfarmers boss Rob Scott, Fortescue founder Andrew Forrest, Arup co-chair Kate West, economist Alan Duncan and union leader Carolyn Smith. 

Pit Crew’s report combines for the first time construction, operations & maintenance, and shutdown modelling at a national level, with a single data set for the mining, oil & gas, heavy industry and infrastructure sectors.

It found that current workforce demand across these sectors equated to round 394,000 people with operations being the largest driver, followed by construction and shutdowns.

The current availability of workers was just under 319,000, hence the shortage of around 75,000.

The peak shortage was forecast for the September quarter 2024, with Western Australia being the main contributor.

The peak in WA was expected to be around 32,000 – this was slightly below Pit Crew’s previous WA forecast, again because of the market self-correcting.

Mr Dyball said there would be constraints in most occupations over the remainder of 2022 and through to at least 2025.

Nationally, the biggest shortfall was expected to be for earthmoving equipment operators, with a forecast shortage of over 14,400 in 2023.

In WA, the shortages will be most acute for boilermakers, welders, fitters, heavy diesel mechanics, electricians, and carpenters.

The local market will also see shortages of crane operators, steel fixers, riggers and scaffolders.

Mr Dyball said the variety of occupation shortages was due to the mix of projects and operations in this state.

He added that all Australian states and territories were currently experiencing high levels of major project activity.

“This is different to past market dynamics, he said.

“Infrastructure and renewable energy projects have increasing prominence alongside mining and oil & gas, and the COVID-19 pandemic has added layers of complexity to workforce demand, availability, and mobility.

“Workforce and labour shortages are now a national issue.”