LNG exports set to rise 48%

The output from an expanded North West Shelf is a major driver in the forecast 48 per cent increase in LNG exports to $4.7 billion this year, according to the Australian Bureau of Agricultural and Resource Economics.

The increase in LNG exports is drawing on higher output from the NWS's fourth LNG train, as well as the start up of the new Darwin LNG plant in 2006.

The full announcement is below:
Earnings from Australia 's commodity exports are forecast to rise by 22 per cent in 2005-06 to over $120 billion, according to the December issue of Australian Commodities , released today by Dr Brian Fisher, Executive Director of ABARE.

'The strength of Australia 's minerals and energy exports continues to underpin the nation's commodities sector,' Dr Fisher said.

The total value of Australia 's minerals and energy exports is forecast to reach $90.3 billion in 2005-06, a rise of almost 32 per cent from the $68.6 billion estimated for 2004-05. The value of Australia 's energy commodity exports is forecast to rise by 42 per cent, reflecting strong growth in crude oil and LNG exports. The value of crude oil exports is forecast to rise by 34 per cent to $8.5 billion, boosted by significantly higher oil prices and higher export volumes. Similarly, the value of LNG exports is forecast to increase by 48 per cent to $4.7 billion in 2005-06, drawing on higher output from the North West Shelf's fourth LNG train and the startup of the new Darwin LNG plant in 2006.

The value of Australia 's iron ore exports is forecast to increase by 72 per cent to nearly $14 billion in 2005-06 and the value of metallurgical coal exports is forecast to increase by 64 per cent to $17.7 billion in 2005-06, largely reflecting substantial increases in negotiated contract prices in 2005.

The price outlook across minerals and energy commodities is mixed. Oil, copper and nickel prices are expected to ease, while prices of other commodities, such as iron ore, zinc and aluminium are expected to firm, reflecting only moderate supply growth.

'Growth in world demand for most of the major minerals and energy commodities is expected to ease from current levels in 2006, reflecting weaker assumed growth in global industrial activity,' Dr Fisher noted.

In the agriculture sector, the turnaround in seasonal conditions since June has provided an ideal finish to winter crops in many regions of Australia and has stimulated good pasture growth for livestock industries. Total winter crop production is forecast to reach 37.8 million tonnes in 2005-06, an increase of 20 per cent when compared with 2004-05.