ABARE sees WA crop production fall 48 per cent

Winter crop production in Western Australia is estimated to have fallen 48 per cent to 7.5 million tonnes in 2006-07, after a below-average rainfall across the grains belt, the Australian Bureau of Agricultural and Resource Economics said today.

Wheat production was estimated at 5 million tonnes in 2006-07, the smallest since 2002-2003, being down 4.5 million tonnes on lasst year's harvest. Barley production fell by 36 per cent to below 1.7 million tonnes, Canola fell 56 per cent to 280,000 tonnes, and lupin production fell by 86 per cent to 125,000 tonnes.

Extreme drought conditions are forecast to cut Australia's 2006-07 winter grains production by 62 per cent from last season to 15.5 million tonnes, the lowest level in 10 years.

In its December crop report, the government agency said wheat production in 2006-07 is estimated to have declined 61 per cent to 9.7 million tonnes, but up slightly from the 9.5 million tonnes it predicted in October.

ABARE said barley production is estimated to have fallen to around 3.7 million tonnes, a 63 per cent drop from the previous year, while canola production is also estimated to be down to around 426,000, a 71 per cent drop from last season.

"It was the driest August to October period since 1900 across many cropping regions of Australia," ABARE said in the report.

"When combined with some of the highest mean maximum temperatures on record, this resulted in a significant decline in winter crop production and has placed summer crops in an uncertain position."

The agency has estimated a 33 per cent drop in summer crop production.

In southern Queensland, northern NSW and the Riverina, below average winter and spring rainfall has depleted soil moisture profiles and water storage levels, severely limiting the summer corp production prospects, particularly for rise and cotton, ABARE said.

The total area planted to grain sorghum is forecast to be 802,000 hectares in 2006-07, 10 per cent less than the record area sown last year.

"Subsoil moisture will need to be replenished before significant areas can be planted with confidence, said ABARE Executive Director Phillip Glyde.

Well below average rainfall and high temperatures has also severely limited spring pasture growth in South Australia, New South Wales and south east Queensland, resulting in increased demand for livestock feed.

"Grain and fodder stocks held on farm will assume increased importance for farmers in feeding livestock until autumn 2007," added Mr Glyde.

The full text of the report's findings on Western Australia is pasted below

• Winter crop production in Western Australia is estimated at 7.5 million tonnes in 2006- 07, a fall of 48 per cent when compared with production in the previous season.Seasonal conditions in Western Australia have been variable throughout the cropping season. The northern part of the Western Australian grains belt had a poor start to the season and the area sown to winter crops was reduced considerably. Production in this region is estimated to have been around 20 per cent of average. In the central and southern regions seasonal conditions were more favorable and crop yields are expected to be close to average.
• Rainfall in May-October across the grains belt was very much below average. However, rainfall in September and October maintained crops in the southern and central regions.
• Harvesting has commenced in all regions of Western Australia, with some regions starting earlier than usual because of the hot and dry finish to the season. The Cooperative Bulk Handling Authority in Western Australia estimates that they will receive 6.6 million tonnes of grain (harvest report no. 2) for the 2006-07 season. By late November it is estimated that 3.5 million tonnes of grain had been received by CBH.
• Wheat production is estimated at 5 million tonnes in 2006-07, a fall of nearly 4.5 million tonnes from the previous season. This is the smallest wheat harvest in Western Australia since 2002-03. Much of the decline in wheat production is estimated to be caused by the poor crops in the northern part of the grains belt.
• Reflecting an 18 per cent fall in the area sown to barley and lower yields than in 2005- 06, total barley production in Western Australia is estimated to decline by 36 per cent to below 1.7 million tonnes. Of the barley harvested, high screenings have been recorded, but this was expected given the seasonal conditions in 2006-07.
• Canola production in Western Australia is estimated to be 280 000 tonnes in 2006-07, a decline of 56 per cent from the previous season. It is estimated that of the areaplanted to canola in 2006-07, around 75 per cent will be harvested. Of the canola that has been harvested the oil content has been a little below average, but reasonable given the growing conditions.
• The area sown to lupins in 2006-07 is estimated at around 350 000 hectares, a little over half the area sown in the previous year. Combined with a reduction in yields, total lupin production in Western Australia is estimated at around 125 000 tonnes, 86 per cent less than in 2005-06.