Misinformation clouds carbon credit

It may surprise many to learn that the airline industry’s greatest challenge is not net zero carbon emissions by 2050.

Instead, but no less imperative, it’s vital the industry do a better job of stopping misinformation about the progress it has made during the past 60 years to reduce carbon dioxide per passenger. And how about the blueprint for the future?

Climate change is real, of that there is no doubt. But there is so much misinformation about the culprits that the truth, when it emerges, is barely recognisable.

That is an enormous challenge for the airline industry as its superb track record is being dismissed, not only on social media but also in some of the world’s most prestigious magazines and newspapers, including The Wall Street Journal and The Economist.

An opinion piece in the August 6 2023 edition of the WSJ by Fred Krupp, president of US-based non-profit environmental advocacy group Environmental Defense Fund, made some bold claims.

“The global aviation industry is one of the largest sources of climate pollution. If its emissions were measured alongside countries, it would be the sixth largest,” the article read.

Technically, he is right. However, he failed to mention that the five worst polluting countries above the airline industry contribute more than 97 per cent of all CO2 emissions.

Interestingly, after an apparent backlash, that paragraph was later omitted from the online article but a Google search on September 9 still had it as the headline paragraph.

In 2017, aviation contributed 1.46 per cent of global CO2 emissions, according to a 2018 report from the Publications Office of the European Union. It is now accepted that the figure is just above 2 per cent.

On May 14, 2023, a headline in The Economist’s online edition read ‘The aviation industry wants to be net zero – but not yet’.

“Flying is a dirty business. Airliners account for more than 2 per cent of the annual global emissions from the burning of fossil fuels, many times commercial aviation’s contribution to world GDP,” the article said.

The Economist’s article has no attribution to the GDP claim, whereas Oxford Economics says aviation’s contribution to global GDP is 4.1 per cent.

The article also pours cold water on aviation’s future developments, suggesting the technology that might help the industry meet its 2050 goal is “barely perceptible on the horizon”.

This statement ignores new-generation engines already in operation (or soon to be) that slash CO2.

In 2006, Joss Garman’s planestupid.com proclaimed: “There won’t be any significant breakthrough in engine emissions for at least three decades. There’s no technical fix.”

Since then, the 787 and A350 have entered service in 2011 and 2014, respectively, burning up to 34 per cent less fuel per passenger than the planes they replaced. The A320neo family and the 737 MAX burn about 15 per cent less fuel.

It is this distortion of facts that is the airline industry’s greatest enemy as it continues its growth. The industry’s record in reducing fuel, and thus emissions, is impressive. Since the start of the jet age during the late 1950s, the amount of fuel used per passenger has declined by around 85 per cent.

That’s an outstanding record by any measure and can be seen in the graphic above from a new book, Green Wings, to be released in August.

What is extraordinary about the debate is that many other serious polluters largely fly under the radar in terms of social and mainstream media coverage.

Food, clothing and air-conditioners are, by any measure, huge contributors to climate change.

The following data comes from the UN Food and Agricultural Organisation and UK-based Carbon Brief.

• One-third of food produced for human consumption is lost or wasted globally.
• In 2017, this waste produced 9.3 billion tonnes of CO2 equivalent, four times aviation and marine combined.
• All the food produced but never eaten would be sufficient to feed 2 billion people. That is more than twice the number of undernourished people across the globe.
• If wasted food were a country, it would be the third-largest producer of CO2 in the world after the US and China.

Now, consider our love of fashion. Here’s what a report by Zurich.com found.

• The fashion industry produces about 10 per cent of annual global CO2 emissions, which is more than all maritime shipping and flights combined.
• Fashion’s emissions of harmful greenhouse gases are projected to grow by more than 50 per cent by 2030.
• The fashion sector (including cotton farming) uses about 93 billion cubic metres of water annually, representing 4 per cent of all global freshwater withdrawals.
• A staggering 3,781 litres of water are required to manufacture a single pair of jeans.
• Every second of every day, the equivalent of a garbage truck full of clothing is burned or added to landfill.
• Textile dyeing is the second largest polluter of water globally.
• An estimated 50 billion new garments were made in 2000. Twenty years later and this figure has doubled to 100 billion.
• The average person today buys 60 per cent more clothes than they did at the turn of the century, and yet we keep them for roughly half as long. And the main culprit is fast fashion.

And, as the earth warms, we are turning more and more to air-conditioners to seek relief. According to an article in euronews.com, that pattern of behaviour is a disaster.

The article warns that the number of air-conditioners worldwide is projected to triple from 1.6 billion in 2022 to 4.8 billion in 2050. Experts warn that we urgently need to change course.

The issues are two-fold. Air-conditioners use more electricity than any other appliance in the home and, combined with electric fans, consume 10 per cent of global electricity.

Sophie Geoghegan, a climate campaigner at London-based green NGO Environmental Investigation Agency, said the average unit was just one-third as efficient as it could be.

“The International Energy Agency says that, by 2050, fans and space cooling will consume as much electricity as all of China and India do today,” Ms Geoghegan said.

The other issue the article highlights is that air-conditioners leak hydrofluorocarbon refrigerants (HFCs), gases with powerful planet-warming properties.

The most commonly used refrigerant – R-410A – is 2,000 times more potent than carbon dioxide. Ms Geoghegan warns in the article that these gases are the elephant in the room.

“It’s terrifying. Given how many people are buying air-conditioners, it could be disastrous,” she said.

As other ground-based transportation sectors reduce their CO2 footprint via hydrogen and electric options, aviation’s share of CO2 produced, while reducing, will be a bigger slice of the pie. No doubt this will be a lightning rod for criticism.

The message is clear for the aviation industry. Neither its solid progress during the past six decades nor its massive economic impact are being recognised in the discussion about carbon pollution.

And the noisy critics have muffled the industry’s exciting blueprint for the future of net zero.

Worse, the anti-aviation rhetoric that started as a well-meaning whimper in 2007 has turned into a crescendo noisier than a 1960s vintage 707.

• Geoffrey Thomas is co-author of Green Wings