Major drop in winter crop likely

A poor start to the season in the north of the state and below average rainfall across the majority of the grain belt is expected to result in a 47 per cent reduction in winter grain production.

The Australian Bureau of Agricultural and Resource Economics has estimated total winter grains production in Western Australia at 7.5 million tonnes in 2006-07.

Wheat production in Western Australia is expected be one of the lowest in the past 10 seasons, with the exception of the 2002-03 drought year, falling to 5mt in 2006-07.

WA barley production is estimated to have fallen by about 36 per cent on 2005-06 to 1.7mt in 2006-07, with WA canola production estimated at 365, 000 tonnes, down 42 per cent.

In early January, Cooperative Bulk Handling estimated it had 6.3mt of grain delivered into its receival network, of which 70 per cent was wheat and 20 per cent barley.

Abare forecast the 2006-07 national winter crop production at 15.7mt, a 61 per cent reduction on the previous season and the smallest winter crop since 1994-95.

The biggest falls in production occurred in Victoria and New South Wales, which were down around 76 per cent and 73 per cent respectively.

The drought is also expected to cut national summer crop production by 60 per cent, according to the national agricultural forecaster.