Job figures tell tale of business confidence

THE modest rise in the jobless rate relative to previous downturns in the labour market reflects the growing number of local companies that are retaining workers they fought hard to recruit during the boom.

Latest figures from the Australian Bureau of Statistics reveal full-time employment declined by 2.5 per cent over the year to the September quarter, while part-time employment grew by nearly 6 per cent.

Although the unemployment rate increased sharply early this year, it has been steady at about 5.8 per cent for the past 12 months, with about 669,000 people unemployed in October.

CommSec economist Savanth Sebastian said September’s surprise dip in the unemployment rate continued in October when the number of advertised part-time jobs rose by 21,500 and full-time job ads by 2,900.

About 65,100 new jobs have been created in the past two months, marking the biggest back-to-back monthly gains in almost two years.

CommSec expects the unemployment rate to peak at about 6 per cent.

“A key forward indicator that highlights the improvement in labour market conditions is that hours worked aren’t being cut to the same extent as earlier in the year,” Mr Sebastian said.

“Not only is the jobless rate far lower than in previous downturns but the participation rate is far higher.”

In the August quarter, industries to suffer some of the largest job losses were (see graphic page 12) retail trade (18,700 people) and public administration and safety (14,700).

In the 12 months to September, employment losses also occurred in the professional, scientific and technical services sector (15,900 people), which includes researchers, accountants, lawyers and advertisers, as well as in mining (12,100), and rental, hiring and real estate services (8,500).

In contrast, employment growth occurred in the same period in the accommodation and food services sector (8,900 people), education and training (7,900) and construction (4,700).