Iron ore, LNG to drive exports

THE value of Australia’s commodity exports is expected to exceed $250 billion in 2011-12, new forecasts by the Australian Bureau of Agricultural and Resource Economics and Sciences have concluded.

ABARES said earnings from commodity exports were forecast to rise by 14 per cent to a record of $251 billion in 2011-12, following a 29 per cent increase to $221 billion in 2010-11.

“Over the medium term, commodity export earnings are projected to be maintained around this value in real terms, reaching around $255 billion in today’s dollars by 2015-16,” deputy executive director Paul Morris said.

The largest contributor to the improved export outlook is the minerals sector, including iron ore, coal and liquefied natural gas (LNG).

The value of mineral exports is forecast to reach $215 billion in 2011-12, a rise of 16 per cent from a forecast $186 billion in 2010-11.

Supported by projected strong commodity demand, especially from China and other emerging Asian markets, earnings from mineral resource exports are projected to remain strong.

Beyond 2012, mineral commodity prices are generally projected to decline in real terms, but remain above historical averages.

Iron ore export earnings are projected to reach $68 billion by 2015-16, as strong growth in export volumes offsets lower prices.

The higher volumes will come from expansion projects by Rio Tinto, BHP Billiton, Fortescue Metals Group and a handful of smaller producers in the Pilbara.

The LNG sector, which is also focused on Western Australia, is set for expansion.

At present, around 55 per cent of worldwide LNG capacity under construction is located in Australia. This includes Woodside’s advanced Pluto project and Chevron’s Gorgon project.

By 2015-16, Australia’s LNG exports are forecast to increase to 41 million tonnes, an increase of 126 per cent from 2010-11.

A key issue for the LNG sector is the extent to which planned coal seam gas projects in Queensland win market share from proposed projects in WA.

Australia is projected to remain the world’s largest exporter of coal, underpinned by strong demand from Asia and supported by the expansion of mines and infrastructure in New South Wales and Queensland.

For farm products, the value of exports is forecast to rise by 4.4 per cent to $32.5 billion in 2011-12, helped by higher prices, following an expected increase of around 9 per cent to $31.2 billion in 2010-11.

For fisheries and forestry, the value of exports is forecast to reach $4.2 billion in 2011-12, a rise of 8 per cent from a forecast $3.9 billion in 2010-11.

THE value of Australia’s commodity exports is expected to exceed $250 billion in 2011-12, new forecasts by the Australian Bureau of Agricultural and Resource Economics and Sciences have concluded.

ABARES said earnings from commodity exports were forecast to rise by 14 per cent to a record of $251 billion in 2011-12, following a 29 per cent increase to $221 billion in 2010-11.

“Over the medium term, commodity export earnings are projected to be maintained around this value in real terms, reaching around $255 billion in today’s dollars by 2015-16,” deputy executive director Paul Morris said.

The largest contributor to the improved export outlook is the minerals sector, including iron ore, coal and liquefied natural gas (LNG).

The value of mineral exports is forecast to reach $215 billion in 2011-12, a rise of 16 per cent from a forecast $186 billion in 2010-11.

Supported by projected strong commodity demand, especially from China and other emerging Asian markets, earnings from mineral resource exports are projected to remain strong.

Beyond 2012, mineral commodity prices are generally projected to decline in real terms, but remain above historical averages.

Iron ore export earnings are projected to reach $68 billion by 2015-16, as strong growth in export volumes offsets lower prices.

The higher volumes will come from expansion projects by Rio Tinto, BHP Billiton, Fortescue Metals Group and a handful of smaller producers in the Pilbara.

The LNG sector, which is also focused on Western Australia, is set for expansion.

At present, around 55 per cent of worldwide LNG capacity under construction is located in Australia. This includes Woodside’s advanced Pluto project and Chevron’s Gorgon project.

By 2015-16, Australia’s LNG exports are forecast to increase to 41 million tonnes, an increase of 126 per cent from 2010-11.

A key issue for the LNG sector is the extent to which planned coal seam gas projects in Queensland win market share from proposed projects in WA.

Australia is projected to remain the world’s largest exporter of coal, underpinned by strong demand from Asia and supported by the expansion of mines and infrastructure in New South Wales and Queensland.

For farm products, the value of exports is forecast to rise by 4.4 per cent to $32.5 billion in 2011-12, helped by higher prices, following an expected increase of around 9 per cent to $31.2 billion in 2010-11.

For fisheries and forestry, the value of exports is forecast to reach $4.2 billion in 2011-12, a rise of 8 per cent from a forecast $3.9 billion in 2010-11.