Housing group sticks to WA forecasts

A housing industry group is sticking to its forecasts for the state's property sector, tipping housing starts to decline 5 per cent next financial year and no shortage of residential building lots for the next two years.

The announcement is below:

The Housing Industry Forecasting Group has issued its mid-year update on the outlook for the housing industry to 2009-10 and sees nothing in the current uncertain economic climate to change its forecast made last October.

Since the Group's October 2008 forecast, the housing sector has become very much a two-speed market with a very active first home buyers segment and a stagnant remainder.

Stewart Darby, HIFG's Chair, said without the first home buyers, dwelling starts in WA would have collapsed and the sector would have suffered an even bigger fall in 2008-09 than the 10-15% decline forecast by HIFG in October 2008.

"Despite the announcement by the Commonwealth Government to extend the First Home Buyer Grant Boost for new construction beyond 30 June 2009, HIFG expects the demand surge for new homes by first home buyer to peter out in the first half of 2009-10 as the grant reverts back to $7,000 on January 1, 2010," Mr Darby said.

"The group welcomes and supports the counter cyclical nature of the housing boost funded by the State and Federal Governments but does not see it preventing dwelling starts from growing in 2009-10 compared to the current financial year.

"HIFG continues to forecast a 5% decline in housing starts next financial year.

"With developer's current stock of conditionally approved residential lots still close to 70,000 across the State, HIFG anticipates no shortage of residential building lots over the next two years, the limit of the Group's forecast horizon," Mr Darby said.

The group will publish its next annual forecast in October 2009.