Factional realignments behind new labor team

The momentous changes inside the Labor state government over the past six months have left Premier Alan Carpenter in a stronger position than his predecessor Geoff Gallop ever enjoyed.

The changes were triggered by the shock resignation of Dr Gallop in January and have included a significant re-ordering of the ministry.

Sitting behind the public changes has been a realignment of Labor’s factions, which has replaced the previously dominant left-new right alliance with a more fluid power play.

These changes have dented the power of left faction leader and senior minister Jim McGinty, who used to rank alongside Dr Gallop as the dominant figure in the state government.

The majority view among political observers is that Mr McGinty has dropped a notch as a result of the factional changes but is still very influential inside cabinet and the party.

He is generally regarded as the most capable and effective minister in the government and his experience and intellect carry great weight in policy debates.

He has implemented major legal reforms in his capacity as attorney-general, has fundamentally changed the electoral system through his one-vote one-value legislation, has gained bi-partisan support for public funding of political parties and is in charge of the biggest health reforms ever attempted in Western Australia.

Liberal party maverick Dan Sullivan paid a back-handed compliment when he said Mr McGinty had outsmarted the Liberals on public funding.

A minister who has become more influential over the past six months is Deputy Premier and Treasurer Eric Ripper, whose influence flows from his powerful ministry and his relationship with the premier.

Mr Ripper is not normally considered a ‘numbers man’ in the factions, but he played an important role in marshalling support for Mr Carpenter when the leadership was up for grabs.

In summary, the changes have left Mr Carpenter at the apex of power with Messrs Ripper and McGinty as the next most powerful ministers.

It is generally accepted that policy decisions will not get through cabinet if they do not have support from this small group.

The irony of Mr Carpenter’s rise is that, like Dr Gallop, he is not aligned with any of Labor’s factions.

He has been judged on merit and is considered the most effective and presentable leader.

Having gained the top job, incumbency delivers enormous power to Mr Carpenter, including the ability to assign ministries (but not to select ministers, that power resides with the Labor caucus).

Mr Carpenter’s biggest mistake since becoming premier was his excessive support for former police minister John D’Orazio, who was caught in a succession of embarrassing blunders and eventually resigned.

That has put a question mark over the political antenna of Mr Carpenter and his close advisers.

The ongoing controversy over outcomes-based education has been another big problem for the government and distracted attention from other policy issues.

In a series of speeches and press conferences, Mr Carpenter has spoken a lot about the longer-term development of the state, life after the resources boom and encouraging the social and cultural development of WA to match the economic prosperity.

While the rhetoric is encouraging, business and political watchers are waiting for substantive policy developments to start flowing.

Outside of the top three ministers, Planning and Infrastructure Minister Alannah MacTiernan is considered highly influential by virtue of her wide ranging portfolio responsibilities.

Ms MacTiernan has survived controversy over the Mandurah rail link, and in fact her role in managing the project has gained emphatic support from the premier and other senior ministers, who believe the rail link will be a vote winner by the time of the next state election.

Big issues falling inside Ms MacTiernan’s portfolio include residential land development and infrastructure provision, which will both have an impact on future economic development.

A young minister on the rise is Mark McGowan, an independent who worked alongside Mr Ripper to help organise the leadership numbers for Mr Carpenter.

Mr McGowan was promoted to the key environment portfolio following the retirement in January of Judy Edwards.

His credentials will be tested this year when he evaluates contentious projects like Alcoa’s proposed Wagerup alumina refinery expansion and Chevron’s Gorgon project, which the Environmental Protection Authority does not favour.

Michelle Roberts’ influence is considered to have declined after a series of policy and publicity blunders. This time last year she was police minister, WA party president and considered herself a future potential premier.

She has since been given the lower profile housing and works portfolio, her term as party president has expired and nobody rates her as a future leader.

Despite all that, she is one of the most senior and experienced ministers in the government and her opinions carry considerable weight.

The police portfolio has been taken by the steady and dependable John Kobelke, who has largely managed to keep out of the headlines.

Other ministers likely to feature more prominently in future include Energy Minister Francis Logan, Resources Minister John Bowler and Corrective Services Minister Margaret Quirk.