Ex-ASIO boss warns on Trump return

Australia’s former national intelligence boss has warned a re-election of Donald Trump to the US presidency risked plunging the world into a global trade war and military conflict in the absence of predictable leadership.

Dennis Richardson, who served for 10 years as Australia Security Intelligence Organisation’s director general, also signalled a return of Mr Trump to the top job was a major threat to the World Trade Organisation, a key pillar in open international trading from which Australia has long benefited.

Speaking at the annual Grains Research Development Commission grains research update in Perth on Monday, Mr Richardson said a victory by Mr Trump would challenge all US allies.

“The risk of miscalculation in the face of uncertainty, unpredictability and impulsive behavior are not the qualities you want in a global leader,” he said.

“It will be vital that we take a long-term view, and not allow the alliance to become hostage to one person.

“If elected a second time, Trump could well pursue an aggressive expansion of his first-term efforts to abandon US trade policy.

“President Trump has, for instance, talked openly about a new ten per cent tax on ‘most imported goods’. If implemented, that would harm friends and foes alike and possibly lead to global trade war.”

Mr Richardson warned even if Mr Trump failed to regain office, his protectionist trade legacy could live on in the Republican Party, which would be a threat to global allies.

The former Australian ambassador to the US – whose distinguished public service career also included time as secretary of the departments of Defence and Foreign Affairs – warned Australia’s capacity to pursue redress over trade disputes such as that held against China recently would be weakened by a second Trump presidency.

Mr Richardson revealed prior to Joe Biden’s 2020 election win US intelligence discovered Chinese leadership was concerned Mr Trump would provoke military action in an effort to hold onto power, which was taken so seriously that top US officials call Chinese counterparts to calm their nerves.

“Neither China nor the US want military conflict,” Mr Richardson said.

“I think military conflict is more likely to arise over miscalculation, which is why you want steady, reliable, predictable leaders, rather than China striking out of the blue militarily against Taiwan.”

New world order

On global politics, Mr Richardson lamented the United Nations’ declining influence and the growing ties between China and Russia, which he said was a threat to the US-led rules-based order that had underpinned global politics for about eight decades.

“Despite the outstanding work of some of these agencies, confidence in the UN is at an all-time low and there is little prospect of effective reform,” Mr Richardson said.

“Newer plurilateral organisations, such as the G20, have not yet measured up to expectations.

“This comes at a time when borderless issues are ever-more important as we see with climate change, the environment, the oceans, space, biosecurity, cyber security, and people movement.”

The challenge to the US’s global role, Mr Richardson said, was coming at a time when the superpower’s political resolve on the world stage was being put to the test by domestic politics.

“Not the Biden administration per se, but of US systems preparedness to stand by friends and allies,” he said.

“A question which will become critical if the US Congress continues to stand in the way of military support to Ukraine.”

On the war in Ukraine, Mr Richardson said Russia could be a net loser whatever the outcome, citing the signing up to NATO of neutral nations, and Germany’s move away from reliance on Russian oil and gas.

Australia’s role

With much of Australia’s defence interest keenly observing China’s increasing influence in the Pacific Islands and South-East Asia, Mr Richardson praised the importance of the Quad alliance with the US, Japan and India.

But he urged that alliance be expanded to include Indonesia and South Korea.

Mr Richardson also criticised Australia’s decision not to send vessels in to defend trade routes from Yemen-based Houthi rebels.

“I think there was a strong case for Australia to make a contribution along with the US, UK and others, in respect of what we see happening in the Red Sea, because that does affect our vital interests as a trading nation,” he said.

Other topics canvassed included the risk of “green trade barriers” imposed by Europe on Australia exports, and the sluggishness of Australian politics to adapt to the fast-paced modern world.

“The Australian agricultural sector … is accustomed to uncertainty, either through weather or market conditions,” he said.

“So psychologically, this is a sector which ought to be well positioned to handle the world as it is today.”