Forecasting complicates Westport planning

A Chinese banking crisis that leads to a significant economic downturn might considerably delay Fremantle harbour reaching its container capacity, while other scenarios might accelerate traffic, according to previously unpublished economic modelling by Deloitte.

The report formed part of the Westport Taskforce’s first stage analysis of the need for a new outer harbour, released last week, but has not previously been published.

Deloitte modelled a baseline and then a high and low scenario.

The baseline was that container traffic would reach 2.1 million twenty foot equivalent units, previously calculated as Fremantle Ports' capacity, by about 2050.

The complication around picking that number for port capacity is that it comes from a report by AECOM in 2014 which examined only the wharf and harbour itself, not infrastructure and freight links which will be for the taskforce to undertake.

Either way, there could be serious variability in exactly how fast traffic grows from the current level of 770,000 TEUs.

Debt-related problems in China would cause a downturn that ultimately, through the impact of compounding, means the size of the global economy is 14 per cent lower by 2067-68 than the baseline.

In that situation, only 1.9 million TEUs of containers would move through the Fremantle port at the end of the study period.

“The weak external environment (would have) a direct impact on full container exports through the Port of Fremantle,” Deloitte said.

“While container exports are not directly linked to industrial commodity trades, the broader slowdown in economic activity drives weaker growth in full container exports.

“Growth remains below baseline throughout the forecast period and by 2067-68 full container exports reach 0.9 million, or 29.5 per cent lower than the baseline scenario.

“Total import containers reach 1 million by 2067-68, 27.5 per cent lower than under the baseline scenario.”

An alternative, high case would see effective economic reforms internationally driving the global economy to be 11.7 per cent larger by 2067-68.

“Stronger global demand directly impacts full container exports through the Port of Fremantle,” the report said.

“Growth remains above baseline with full container exports reaching 1.9 million in 2067-68, or 44.4 per cent higher than the baseline scenario.

“Total import containers reach 2.0 million by 2067-68, 38% higher than under the baseline scenario.”

Under that scenario, WA would effectively need two ports the size of Fremantle by 2067.