China's demand for steel is expected to dive by at least 40 per cent by 2050, according to a Chinese government climate adviser who believes the industry will shrink as a result of moves to make it more environmentally friendly.
Dr Jiang Kejun, who leads environmental policy analysis at China's Energy Research Institute of the National Development and Reform Commission, says many heavy industrial products, including steel, are reaching their peak and will be used less under future clean energy programs.
He told a Climate Commission function in Melbourne the need for steel is expected to decline from a peak of 610 million tonnes in 2020 to 360 million tonnes by 2050, along with a fall in the need for other products including glass, aluminium and cement.
His predictions contrast with most other analyses, which estimate higher output and further growth, at least over the next few years.
For instance, the China Iron & Steel Association predicted in May that steel output will reach 680mt this year and could grow to 750mt by 2015.
Singapore-based The Steel Index is even more bullish, saying this week that Chinese steel production could reach 700mt this year and 850mt in 2012.
Dr Jiang said a burgeoning clean energy movement in China includes an ambitious five-year plan to reduce energy intensity by 16 per cent, and carbon intensity by 17 per cent, by 2015.
Some 12.5 million hectares of farmland is also expected to be transformed into forest by the same deadline.
A trial of one of the world's biggest emissions trading schemes is planned across four pilot cities and two provinces, and low carbon development is earmarked for 13 other cities and provinces.
Dr Jiang says the boom presents opportunities for Australia, including its low-carbon building designs, which he says offer a good model for crowded metropolitan living.
"China's cities are growing very quickly, we don't have much time to wait, we should do it right now, as soon as possible," he said.
He is particularly keen on bringing riverbank bicycle tracks to China, similar to those along Melbourne's Yarra River.
And Dr Jiang confirmed China is closely watching the evolution of Australia's carbon pricing scheme, ahead of legislation to be introduced for a fixed price on carbon into parliament next Tuesday.
Climate Commissioner Roger Beale said China's five-year plan requires the republic to double its improvement in energy efficiency, forcing it to embark on initiatives "right across every sector".
He said China's movement away from resource-intensive industries and an export-oriented economy would lead to a change towards a greener, more domestic focus.
